On January 14, a couple of days earlier than the ceasefire in Gaza took impact, the now-former US Secretary of State Antony Blinken addressed a crowd on the Atlantic Council in Washington, DC.
Over the past 15 months, Blinken has performed a essential position in supporting Israel’s navy marketing campaign in opposition to Gaza, a marketing campaign that human rights organisations have described as genocidal, during which no less than 47,300 Palestinians have been killed.
The objective for Israel, as acknowledged by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, was the whole defeat and elimination of Hamas. However talking in certainly one of his remaining appearances as Secretary of State on January 14, Blinken struck a special tone.
“We assess that Hamas has recruited nearly as many new militants because it has misplaced,” Blinken stated. “That may be a recipe for a permanent insurgency and perpetual struggle.”
Hamas battered however not defeated
Hamas has undoubtedly been hit arduous within the final 15 months, analysts and specialists instructed Al Jazeera. It has possible misplaced 1000’s of fighters, together with its navy chief Yahya Sinwar, and, in keeping with the European Council on International Relations (ECFR), its weapons stockpile is depleted.
However because the mud settles in Gaza, it’s clear that Hamas has not been eradicated and nonetheless has a presence within the Gaza Strip.
Hamas fighters have prominently featured within the handover of Israeli captives as a part of the ceasefire take care of Israel. And members of the Hamas-run civil administration have resumed work. If there’s any authority in Gaza, it nonetheless seems to be Hamas.
“Hamas has an curiosity in creating a picture of power that’s extraordinarily orchestrated, and we should always see that as a propaganda train,” Hugh Lovatt of the ECFR, instructed Al Jazeera.
Lovatt added, nevertheless, that after “over a yr of combating, the [Hamas] fighters stay very a lot in command of Gaza”.
“Hamas is making an attempt to point out Israel that it did not destroy it but in addition that the motion can have a veto over Gaza’s future going ahead as a result of neither Israel, the PA [Palestinian Authority], or the worldwide neighborhood will be capable of impose a post-conflict governance or safety association,” Lovatt stated.
The scenes in the course of the captive releases have caught many off guard, together with Palestinians in Gaza.
“I used to be very stunned to see the variety of the Qassam [Hamas’s military wing] fighters in the course of the launch of the Israeli captives,” Fathi al-Ladawi, 67, displaced from Rafah to Nuseirat in central Gaza and a father of eight, instructed Al Jazeera. “The dimensions of the strikes and bombardment, particularly in northern Gaza, made us suppose Hamas’s human and navy assets had been considerably depleted. However what we noticed proves they’re nonetheless robust – even perhaps stronger than earlier than.”
“[Hamas] was capable of maintain on to its hostages, who appeared to be in good situation, and was capable of negotiate and signal a ceasefire settlement with the events that swore to annihilate it,” Omar Rahman, a fellow on the Center East Council on International Affairs, instructed Al Jazeera.
Hamas has additionally, in keeping with Blinken’s assertion, been capable of recruit sufficient fighters to interchange these it misplaced in the course of the struggle.
The precise variety of Hamas fighters killed in the course of the struggle is tough to know for sure. Hamas claims it has misplaced between 6,000 and seven,000 members from its armed and civilian wings, in keeping with an ECFR report, based mostly on interviews with two senior Hamas members. However, the report says, most of Hamas’s estimated 25,000 fighters are possible nonetheless alive and in hiding.
Netanyahu claimed that 20,000 “terrorists” had been killed as of November 2024, whereas Israel’s Army Chief of Employees Herzi Halevi stated roughly 3,000 had been killed between October 6, 2024, and the ceasefire. The UN’s Human Rights Workplace says that almost 70 % of the verified deaths throughout this era have been girls and kids.
“Solely Hamas is aware of what number of members of their navy wing, the Qassam Brigades, have been killed,” Hamze Attar, a Palestinian navy analyst who’s from Gaza, instructed Al Jazeera. “We’re seeing a number of posts mourning the kin in a approach that makes use of language indicating that they have been combating, however Hamas didn’t announce something.”
Hamas can preserve revolt ‘for a few years’
Among the many few acknowledged losses are a handful of Hamas’s leaders.
On the primary day of the ceasefire on January 19, Hamas’s spokesperson, recognized solely as Abu Obeida, delivered what he claimed was a “victory speech”. He paid tribute to a few of Hamas’s fallen members, together with Sinwar, whose demise was recorded by an Israeli drone in October; political bloc chief Ismail Haniyeh, killed in Tehran in late July; and Saleh al-Arouri, killed in Lebanon in January 2024.
Attar identified that Abu Obeida didn’t embody the identify of Mohammed Deif, the elusive determine who was one of many al-Qassam Brigades’ founders. Israel claimed to have killed Deif in late July, however the demise was by no means formally acknowledged by Hamas.
Among the many dwelling embody the reported de facto head of Hamas in Gaza, Mohammed Sinwar, a determine Israel considers extra hardline, well-trained and extra of a mastermind than his late brother, Yahya, and Ezzedine Haddad, who oversees the Qassam Brigades in northern Gaza.
Israel’s acknowledged targets additionally included destroying Hamas’s infrastructure, most notably its huge community of tunnels. Nonetheless, in keeping with Israeli media, Hamas’s tunnel community continues to be largely operational, although estimates about how a lot of it’s nonetheless intact fluctuate considerably. Hamas members instructed ECFR that most of the tunnels have been restored or preserved and, in some circumstances, even expanded.
Hamas’s rocket arsenal might have been considerably depleted by Israel. Nonetheless, the improvised and primitive rockets might be rebuilt with unexploded ordnance that is still round Gaza.
Hamas recycles “unexploded Israeli rockets, bombs, and artillery shells to make use of as improvised explosive gadgets and produce new projectiles”, the ECFR report stated.
Hamas’s adaptability as a combating pressure, developed over time as a response to Israel’s ways in opposition to it, means it has been constructed to take quite a few blows and nonetheless be capable of keep it up as an organisation.
Hamas reputation
Hamas shouldn’t be solely a navy organisation however has run the Gazan authorities since 2006, when it beat Fatah within the elections.
And whereas Hamas’s reputation has grown within the West Financial institution, particularly for the reason that Hamas-led assault on southern Israel on October 7, 2023, in Gaza, some have expressed dissenting opinions in direction of the group. Nonetheless, Hamas’s reputation has not been significantly impacted by Israel’s struggle on Gaza, as recommended by the Palestinian Heart for Coverage and Survey Analysis’s polls.
Opinions on the group fluctuate extensively amongst Palestinians in Gaza. Help for Hamas in Gaza was at about 35 %, in keeping with the most recent polling in September 2024, down three proportion factors from June 2024.
Some criticisms have attacked Hamas’s failure to foretell Israel’s prolonged and brutal response to the assault. Others have claimed Hamas dragged them right into a struggle the folks of Gaza, almost all of whom have misplaced household, mates and their houses, didn’t ask to be part of.
Certainly one of their critics was 45-year-old Wael Darwish, from northern Nuseirat.
“This was a disaster, not a victory,” he stated. “We’ve suffered the best catastrophe in historical past. If there’s any minor triumph, it’s due to the folks’s resilience, not Hamas.”
“Whereas I don’t deny the sacrifices of the resistance, we’re drained,” Darwish stated. “The resistance should additionally take into account its folks. We’ve shed sufficient blood.”
“If Hamas stays in energy, I’ll go away Gaza instantly,” he continued. “Many really feel the identical.”
Even earlier than October 7, Hamas confronted home opposition – together with protests in opposition to the group’s insurance policies. Some Palestinians in Gaza, nevertheless, stated the final 15 months had modified their opinion of the group.
“I used to be blissful to see the folks, their numbers, and the security of the Hamas fighters,” Fatima Shammali, 64, a mom of 11, instructed Al Jazeera. “Though I don’t normally assist Hamas, my assist for them grew in the course of the struggle as a result of they managed to counter, even barely, the Israeli navy arsenal.”
Nihal Barakat, 43, a mom of eight who was displaced from the Shati refugee camp to Nuseirat, agreed. “I anticipate Hamas’s reputation has elevated after this struggle,” she stated. “As for its power, it stays intact, and we hope it’s channelled for the advantage of the folks.”
“It’s clear that many Gazans are annoyed and indignant at [Hamas],” Lovatt stated. Individuals have been indignant that Hamas didn’t suppose by means of the implications of their October 7 assault and did not plan for the “inevitable, disproportionate violent response in opposition to Gaza”, Lovatt added.
Lovatt stated that criticism of the group was “felt in Hamas itself”, particularly among the many reasonable wing of the group. There have been “numerous criticisms of [late Hamas leader] Yahya Sinwar’s actions and that of some others who took unilateral choices”, the analyst stated, based mostly on his interviews for the ECFR report.
However even disapproval shouldn’t be taken as an endorsement of Israel’s ways or its occupation of Palestine, specialists stated.
“In the course of the genocidal struggle on Gaza, folks didn’t collaborate [with Israel] as a result of they’re the enemy and an occupation,” Attar, the navy analyst, stated. “It isn’t about Hamas. It’s about identification, the resilience and the continuity of Palestinian folks. It isn’t as a result of they love Hamas, however as a result of they love Palestine.”
“The occupation of our land should finish. The world wants to face with us to find out our destiny,” al-Ladawi, the displaced father of eight, stated. “Spare us from extra struggle; we’re exhausted. We shouldn’t be punished just because amongst us are members of Hamas, Fatah, [Palestinian Islamic] Jihad or some other faction.”
