Chiefs vs. Eagles Tremendous Bowl preview: 3 keys to a Kansas Metropolis win

The 2 weeks between the convention championship video games and the Tremendous Bowl are attention-grabbing for the 2 groups concerned for lots of causes. Gamers and coaches should take care of individuals popping out of the woodwork begging for tickets, the media publicity is at a completely new degree, and the silliness-to-football ratio can get out of hand if you happen to’re not cautious.

On the plus aspect, you typically have much more eyes on the scouting and matchup elements of the particular sport. Groups will herald space scouts for their very own experience and perspective, and every part groups do to achieve any benefit from a schematic standpoint is doubled and tripled with the additional individuals and time.

I’m only one man with a laptop computer and a bunch of subscriptions to tape and metric providers, but when the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs have been to ask me to seek the advice of in any capability (yeah, proper), I’d say that these three issues are essential to the Tremendous Bowl three-peat they want with solely the Philadelphia Eagles standing in the way in which..

Don’t blitz Jalen Hurts.

Two issues we learn about Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo: He loves cornerbacks who can play press protection, and he’s very a lot in favor of the blitz as an idea. This season, the Chiefs have despatched further rushers on 30% of their snaps, the sixth-highest charge within the NFL. However there may be some susceptibility there. With 5 or extra pass-rushers, Kansas Metropolis has allowed 120 completions on 189 makes an attempt for 1,344 yards, 11 touchdowns, three interceptions, 12 move breakups, and a passer score of 97.4.

Spags may need to dial down these blitz tendencies towards Jalen Hurts, as a result of it’s one of many issues Hurts has simply demolished this season. Take the up-and-down nature of the Eagles’ passing sport out of the dialogue right here, as a result of it is a factor. Towards 5 or extra pass-rushers this season, Hurts has accomplished 84 of 121 passes for 1,098 yards, 505 yards after the catch, 9 touchdowns, one interception, and a passer score of 119.1.

If you wish to put Hurts in a field, one of the best guess is to flood the zones, give him disguised coverages, and hope that the hesitation to show the ball unfastened that has been a difficulty by means of many of the season continues to rear its head. However sending the home towards him tends to convey out the quickness and decisiveness he must succeed.

Be sure that your third-down dimes are value it.

Right here’s one other Spags tendency to observe. The Chiefs have performed dime on 33% of their third-down snaps, the very best charge within the league. And with six defensive backs on third down, they’ve allowed a league-high 228 yards and 125 yards after contact on a league-high 28 dashing makes an attempt. That is the place the Chiefs ought to concentrate on Jalen Hurts as a runner – in these third-down 6DB conditions, he’s gained 89 yards on simply six carries. Oh, and that Saquon Barkley man might be an issue, too.

General, the Eagles have run on third down greater than another group. By a LOT. They’ve carried the rock 114 instances on the cash down, and the Indianapolis Colts rank second with 74 makes an attempt. Each Hurts and Barkley have crushed it in these conditions. Hurts leads the NFL with 51 third-down runs for 238 yards, 114 yards after contact, and two touchdowns. Barkley’s 43 third-down runs ranks second within the league, and he’s gained 295 yards with 152 yards after contact, and 4 touchdowns.

This is likely to be a case wherein the Chiefs go along with extra nickel and base protection to counter all that. Would the Eagles go along with a “You understand that I do know that you understand” factor and throw the ball extra on third down? We will however wait and see, however the Eagles seem primed to assault two of Spags’ major constructs with authority.

Assault the Eagles protection beneath.

You’d determine that in an period the place explosive passing performs are speculated to be the be-all and end-all, a group that’s categorically incapable of manufacturing them wouldn’t be anyplace close to a Tremendous Bowl. However right here the Chiefs are of their third straight, and with the NFL’s worst downfield passing sport to indicate for it. This season, Patrick Mahomes has accomplished simply 13 of 51 passes of 20 or extra air yards for 465 yards, 4 touchdowns, 4 interceptions, and a passer score of 58.5. Mahomes’ completion charge of 25.5% is the NFL’s worst amongst certified quarterbacks.

So, how do the Chiefs get away with this? As a result of they’ve a sustaining passing sport that’s constructed on paper lower after paper lower, and so they win that manner. Mahomes has the NFL’s most makes an attempt on passes behind the road of scrimmage this season with 135, finishing 122 such passes for 670 yards, two touchdowns, no interceptions, and a passer score of 92.3. He’s accomplished 215 of 273 passes of 0-9 air yards for 1,871 yards, 13 touchdowns, two interceptions, and a passer score of 108.0.

That is the Chiefs’ passing sport now. Kansas Metropolis additionally ranks third this season in yards after the catch with 2,407, behind the Detroit Lions and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. That is additionally their passing sport now.

How will the Eagles counter the brief passing sport? It’s a sound query. Pretty much as good because the Eagles’ protection has been this season, brief passes have been a Kryptonite. Towards passes behind the road of scrimmage to 9 air yards, they’ve allowed 321 completions on the NFL’s most makes an attempt (441) for two,156 yards, 15 touchdowns, no interceptions, and an opponent passer score of 94.4.

Vic Fangio’s protection clearly permits a variety of beneath stuff, and that performs proper into Patrick Mahomes’ arms.