El Nido lagoon —PHOTOS BY DORIS DUMLAO-ABADILLA
MANILA, Philippines — Being a prophet of property increase will not be a straightforward job.
Simply ask actual property veteran David Leechiu, who’s painfully conscious that being probably the most optimistic man within the room makes him a magnet for criticisms.
“I simply need to guarantee you guys that we’re not faking it,” he says. “And with the 30 to 40 individuals who do nothing however analysis within the workplace, we’ve tried our greatest to offer you as a lot details about what’s happening available in the market.”
Talking on the current PHConnect 2025 discussion board of lodge house owners and executives, the founder/CEO of Leechiu Property Consultants proposed a daring technique to catapult the Philippines’ annual international vacationer arrivals to 50 million by 2050.
Coming from a woefully low base of 5.9 million, the 50-million aim appears like a pipe dream for the Philippines.
It’s about half of the international vacationers that France attracts as we speak, and way more than Thailand’s 35 million annual guests.
Effectively, we’ve obtained 25 years to make it a risk, Leechiu reckons.
And it’s one thing that we should attempt for to ascertain a formidable third financial driver, other than enterprise course of outsourcing (BPO) and abroad remittances.
At present, Leechiu says that synthetic intelligence (AI) is creating extra jobs and filling up workplace house within the Philippines.
But when the naysayers are appropriate in warning that AI may quickly decimate the BPO trade, Leechiu notes that “the one rocket ship we have now is the tourism sector.”
“If they’re flawed and AI continues to create jobs for the Philippines, then we can have a really robust third leg to face on with tourism,” he says.
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Top-of-the-line-performing property markets
Throughout the globe, Leechiu says the property market has been beneath a lot stress.
“And but, the Philippines continues to do fairly effectively. It’s not good and it’s obtained some issues. However all issues thought-about, the Philippine property market is without doubt one of the greatest performing on the earth,” he says.
Within the workplace property sector, as an example, he notes that the nation has seen 740,000 sq. meters of latest leasing exercise within the first half.
It’s been fairly a “shocker,” he notes.
“We’re fairly assured that 2025 can be one other yr the place Philippine workplace leasing will attain a million sq. meters of leasing exercise within the workplace sector alone,” he says.
“Only a few nations on the earth are in a position to try this. Similar to Manny Pacquiao, the workplace market within the Philippines is punching method above its weight,” he provides.
The identical is true with retail property, with the nation’s purchasing malls now again to their pre-COVID vibrancy.
As such, he notes that capital values have been “cussed.”
READ: Metro Manila wants 3 years to stabilize residential glut – Leechiu
“I say this with out jest as a result of so many patrons need to purchase distressed belongings. Simply do not forget that we have now been via 5 years of pressure from COVID and the lockdowns to hyperinflation to hyper rates of interest. And but, many constructing house owners within the Bay Space, in Ortigas Middle, in Alabang, are sitting on 50 % vacancies of massive buildings.
“And so they proceed to show tenants away,” he notes.
“The market must be at P300 or P250 pesos per sq. meter [monthly rent] in Ortigas, within the Bay Space. However why are they not? It’s as a result of the landlords are saying, you realize what, if I don’t get my lease, the one lease that I would like, they will go elsewhere. And that’s why rents are nonetheless big. It’s nonetheless at that P500 pesos per sq. meter, P600 pesos per sq. meter in most markets.”
Land values, particularly on the excessive finish, are nonetheless going up.
Forbes Park, as an example, continues to understand at 2 to five % a yr since COVID, he says.
The identical is true with Ayala Alabang and different unique villages, the place the rise in valuation has been even quicker at greater than 5 % a yr.
“It will not be potential if individuals have been distressed within the system,” he says.
David Leechiu —PHOTO FROM LEECHIU PROPERTY CONSULTANTS WEBSITE
How about tourism belongings?
The Philippines has but to return to prepandemic ranges, partly as a result of populous China has been off the sport amid the financial challenges in that market, he says.
That is alongside the multitude of geopolitical and different world points which have restricted tourism world wide.
“However spending, from what we perceive, has been doing fairly effectively to compensate for the shortage of arrivals,” he says.
Within the final 15 years, Leechiu notes that the quantity of capital spending in actual property used to develop tourism has been one of many smallest.
“It’s as a result of it’s one of the vital tough to entry. It’s one of the vital tough to learn. It is without doubt one of the most prone to volatility. It’s not as resilient as workplace market or the residential market,” he says.
READ: PH tourism income reaches all-time excessive in 2024, exceeds P760B
However that is going to vary, Leechiu says, as a result of within the subsequent six years, the nation has 40,000 lodge rooms beneath building.
“It’s most likely the biggest injection of lodge rooms we’re ever going to see—in new geographies. It’s going to place the Philippines on the map of many individuals,” Leechiu says.
And lots of establishments have been speaking in regards to the Philippines more likely to be among the many world’s high 20 economies by 2050.
Goldman Sachs forecasts sixteenth place, whereas BMI and PwC see 18th and nineteenth place, respectively.
The World Financial institution, nevertheless, has mentioned that in an effort to hit these numbers, it’s not simply the momentum of inhabitants development that we have to maintain.
“We want tourism to prosper, not simply prosper however be a major a part of this financial system if we’re to hit these numbers,” he says.
Part 1: Constructing the runway for 50 million vacationers
The 50-50 problem might be overcome by a two-phase technique, Leechiu says.
The primary part (2026 to 2038) is to “construct the runway”—set up world-class benchmarks, catalyze anchor locations and enhance infrastructure like airports, seaports and roads.
The nation should additionally guarantee dependable utilities: energy, water, waste administration and digital entry.
He takes a potshot at property house owners who disregard waste administration and the principles and laws of their grasp deed and grasp plan.
“The hypocrisy concerned in imposing these restrictions is ridiculous. And we have now to, for the sake of the planet, for the sake of the nation, for the sake of your yard and my yard, we have now to conform,” he says.
“And we have now to construct new legal guidelines and replace the zoning for the nation if we’re to develop the tourism sector. There is no such thing as a different method however to develop the tourism sector exponentially,” he says.
Part 1 contains the event of mature locations like Bohol, Palawan and Siargao, alongside the rehabilitation of Boracay, Puerto Galera and Taal-Tagaytay areas.
The Tagaytay-Nasugbu-Batangas hall, he says, might be reimagined as a home mass tourism hub.
On the similar time, he says Filipinos must reimagine main cities as vacationer hubs (focus areas in tradition, enterprise, purchasing, nightlife and occasions) and set up pilot zones for medical tourism, senior care, wellness and training tourism.
One low-hanging fruit that the Philippines has but to faucet, he says, is the LGBTQ+ market, one thing that Thailand has finished extraordinarily effectively in harnessing.
The yachting market can be one thing that the archipelago may develop with the suitable infrastructure, he says.
“Have a look at the 1000’s of boats parked within the French Riviera throughout nearly 50 yacht golf equipment. The largest cause why the taipans of Hong Kong don’t come to the Philippines regardless of its magnificence is as a result of it’s so tough to come back right here..and there’s no place to park their tremendous yacht,” he says.
“If you would like excessive spenders, we have now to do what it takes to deliver them right here,” he says.
To draw international direct investments (FDI) in tourism, he says the nation wants to consider particular possession buildings (100% international possession of land will not be allowed right here) in addition to government-backed packages.
Step one is to start reexamining authorities assist packages for tourism-related FDI insurance policies.
Part 2: Increasing the map
The second part of Leechiu’s proposed technique, to be applied from 2038 to 2050, goals to scale profitable fashions from part 1, diversify supply markets and convey extra areas into the tourism financial system.
This contains additional growth of the North Luzon Shoreline (from Bataan or Pampanga to Baler, Quezon), the remainder of Visayas, in addition to Davao and Cagayan de Oro in Mindanao.
After specializing in main cities beneath part 1, the following part is to roll out the profitable ideas throughout the nation— catalyze second-tier metropolis capability and deepen metropolis branding and placemaking throughout areas.
This additionally includes the growth of inter-island connectivity throughout the archipelago. Improve secondary gateways and assist seamless land-sea-air motion.
On FDI technique, he says this would be the time to institutionalize globally aggressive tourism funding frameworks. It’s the time to introduce daring reforms to align with high FDI locations.
When it comes to governance and coverage reforms, that is the time to scale vacation spot administration establishments, formalize tourism zoning, sustainability initiatives and financial assist nationwide.
“We’re like fathers of a really massive and poor household…Typically, the dad and mom will say to the eldest of the youngsters, you’re those who’ve the chance to go to school. Whenever you get a job, please don’t get married first, ship your youthful siblings to highschool,” Leechiu says.
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“And that’s what we have now to do, I assume, with the nation. We now have to go and prioritize which of them might be the silver bullet each 10 years. Thailand has Phuket; Indonesia has Bali. We now have numerous locations that might be world-class coveted locations,” he says.
/rwd
