OPINION — Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, Vladimir Putin anticipated a swift victory from his “particular navy operation.” As a substitute, it’s Kyiv now conducting particular air campaigns in opposition to Russia’s oil and gasoline {industry}. Atypical Russians are starting to really feel the conflict’s prices extra immediately and the strain on the Kremlin is rising.
Since late 2023, Ukraine has unleashed a drone offensive, concentrating on Russian oil refineries. By 2024, the Biden administration was upset on the affect Ukraine was starting to have, because the US was delicate to modifications in oil costs.
However for Russia, oil and gasoline revenues assist fund its ongoing conflict in opposition to Ukraine. Russia’s reliance on large recruitment bonuses to maintain its conflict effort in Ukraine is straining its economic system, driving up wages and inflation because the navy competes with civilian industries for labor. Based on a June survey by the unbiased Russian pollster Levada Middle, 58% of Russians named rising costs as their high concern.
Drones have fashioned the spine of Ukraine’s protection, however now, they’re more and more used on the offensive in opposition to Russia. Over time, drone strikes grew to become extra efficient. By 2025, Ukraine had constructed an in depth fleet of long-range drones and put them to make use of, concentrating on Russian oil, hitting Moscow the place it hurts most. Kyiv believes these to be “kinetic sanctions,” for the reason that West has been hesitant to focus on Russian oil for years. And for Putin, gas costs are politically harmful.
Since early August, Ukraine has carried out greater than a dozen strikes on Russian oil refineries, knocking out as a lot as 20% of refining capability – over 1 million barrels a day. Based on The Economist, the assaults have pressured rationing, despatched wholesale petrol costs up by greater than 50%, and pushed Russia to droop gasoline exports. The assaults have continued into September.
The result’s that Russians are caught in lengthy traces ready for gas. Some cities reportedly don’t have any gas provides left. Native authorities budgets are in freefall. All of Russia’s main oil firms have reported revenue declines in 2025, with industry-wide earnings minimize in half.
The shortages now dominate the headlines of Russian newspapers. By early September, Putin himself was pressured to admit that Russia is going through a gasoline scarcity. The result’s rising social strain throughout the nation. One Russian conflict blogger wrote, “We have been half-dead right here for months, digging mud within the trenches, beneath drones daily, counting bullets, whereas again residence, oil refineries are burning down in batches.”
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The Kremlin’s official narrative has been that harm to refineries got here from falling particles after drones had been shot down. But on the identical time, Russian authorities broadcast loudspeaker warnings urging residents to not report footage of Ukrainian drones – an implicit admission that direct hits had been occurring and to not broadcast the success of Kyiv’s efforts.
Issues will proceed to worsen for Russia. Ukrainian protection firm Fireplace Level has not too long ago unveiled two new ballistic missiles, the FP-7 and FP-9, with ranges of 200 km and 855 km respectively, as a part of Kyiv’s push to strike deeper into Russian territory. Kyiv has additionally been deploying AI drone swarms. With time, this expertise can be prolonged to long-range drones.
Whereas these strikes alone could not decide the end result of the conflict, they’re shaping its trajectory. Ukraine has proven it may deliver the struggle deep into Russia’s financial heartland, weakening the very revenues that maintain Moscow’s navy machine.
Putin could be smart to recollect the teachings of Tsar Nicholas II throughout World Conflict I: when the frontlines dragged on and home shortages mounted, social strain at residence proved as harmful because the enemy overseas.
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