Trevor Lawrence has run out of excuses. All through his 5 years within the NFL there have been myriad justifications why Lawrence has struggled to stay as much as the unbelievable hype he entered the league with. Dangerous teaching, questionable weapons, mediocre blocking — all have been elements in why Lawrence hasn’t met expectations since being the No. 1 total choose in 2021. The Jaguars have slowly however absolutely addressed these issues, however they’re nonetheless dropping, and the fixed has been Trevor Lawrence.
There’s an excessive amount of binary evaluation of NFL quarterbacks in soccer discourse. Everyone seems to be both “rubbish” or “GOAT” with no room for nuance within the center. It’s this gray space which Lawrence finds himself. He’s not a nasty quarterback, however he isn’t a particular one both. Very like the crew he’s on: Trevor Lawrence is a JAG.
The “generational expertise”
Essentially the most over-used phrase with regards to the NFL Draft is “generational expertise.” We will’t go two years now with out three totally different gamers being “generational.” It’s nearly as dumb because the time period “prototypical quarterback” getting used synonymously with “the perfect of the place,” when by definition a prototype is one thing we’ve by no means seen earlier than, with the proper time period being “archetype.” Grammar nerding apart, within the final 25 years of the NFL Draft there have really been three gamers who had been universally accepted as “generational abilities.”
- Eli Manning (2004)
- Andrew Luck (2012)
- Trevor Lawrence (2021)
The shared DNA of all three quarterbacks was the notion that there was completely no method they might fail within the NFL. That they had very best measurement for the place, wonderful arm power, nice soccer IQ, and had confirmed themselves in pro-style faculty offenses that made it simple to translate their sport to the professionals. The one method you would actually discover fault is by nit-picking the smallest minutia of their video games, and the quantity of security they conveyed to a crew choosing No. 1 total is what differentiated them as “generational abilities.”
We don’t want to return and litigate Eli Manning’s profession. Do I personally suppose he’s a Corridor of Fame quarterback? No, however I perceive why he obtained the nod. We’ll by no means know the way good Andrew Luck may have been if accidents didn’t derail his profession. Trevor Lawrence continues to be writing his story.
Because it pertains to Lawrence he completely deserved that “generational” tag popping out of Clemson. Right here was a 22-year-old quarterback who gained a nationwide championship as a freshman, took his sport to a different degree as a sophomore, and accomplished nearly 70 p.c of his passes as a real junior. In all three years he was operating a Dabo Swinney offense, praised for the way properly it ready gamers for the NFL — and in all three years Lawrence barely turned the ball over.
The place did issues go off observe?
Hindsight is 20/20, however Lawrence had a “too huge to fail” factor to his draft inventory. It prompted everybody to miss one factor really missing from his skillset as a quarterback: Lawrence has no unicorn traits. It is a participant who is excellent at all the things, however doesn’t have a single side to his sport that makes you say “that’s the distinctive high quality he brings to the desk.”
Trait-based scouting has develop into the norm within the NFL in recent times. Groups are not often searching for the perfect all-around prospect, however as an alternative somebody with a signature potential they will leverage. On the quarterback place that is pretty simple to see. Patrick Mahomes has a daft potential to make throws out and in of construction, Josh Allen is a grasp at making clutch performs with each his legs and arms, Lamar Jackson’s out-of-this world athleticism and accuracy make him a dual-threat not like the rest in soccer.
Even after we hit the following tier there are issues that stand out with the quarterbacks: Joe Burrow has masterful contact on deep routes, Jared Goff is great at hitting gamers in stride, Jordan Love has unimaginable pocket presence and a sense for strain.
What does Trevor Lawrence have that separates him from different NFL quarterbacks? Nothing. Probably not.
It’s this lack of an elite fallback trait which has ensured Lawrence isn’t that particular as a quarterback. His sport could be very extremely depending on the exterior elements round him, with a elementary incapacity to rise above adversity. You’re getting a Trevor Lawrence sport week-in, week-out. Dependable as clockwork, boring as watching the second hand transfer.
It is a participant who rises and sinks with the water round him.
What’s taking place with Lawrence proper now?
It’s kind of been a continuation of the identical. Lawrence will make some actually good performs, after which do one thing like this which makes completely no sense.
Strain off the sting from Trey Hendrickson was undoubtedly an element, however Lawrence had room to climb the pocket to keep away from the frenzy and he didn’t. As a substitute he makes a back-footed go that’s all arm, and it softly falls to the protection. This could have been one of many best passes of the sport, with Travis Hunter having a daft quantity of room to work ultimately zone. If Lawrence throws again shoulder property it’s a straightforward landing. As a substitute he flips the sphere.
Now there’s drama creeping in about Brian Thomas Jr. changing into shy about catching balls over the center. That’s undoubtedly a difficulty, however there’s additionally a actuality right here that BTJ doesn’t have a variety of chemistry with Trevor Lawrence. Throughout his 1,282 yard receiving season as a rookie, Brian Thomas Jr. did the vast majority of his work with Mac Jones below middle.
In 2024 BTJ had six video games the place he completed with over 90 receiving yards. Two of those got here within the 10 begins he made with Lawrence, and 4 of them got here in Jones’ seven begins. When your prime receiver performs higher with the backup than you, it’s an issue.
When your coach is rising weary of your accuracy, it’s an issue.
We’re within the midst of yr 5 now. The percentages that Lawrence will magically put all of it collectively and develop into the participant folks hoped for have evaporated. He isn’t a nasty quarterback, and positively one Jacksonville can win video games with — however he’s by no means going to be a High 5 quarterback or probably even High 10.
There’s simply an excessive amount of inconsistency when the throws matter. Whereas he’ll make the vast majority of passes an NFL quarterback ought to make, he doesn’t make the performs on the nice ones are able to. This places a tough ceiling on what the Jaguars can obtain with Lawrence at QB. At this level he’s a lot nearer to Blake Bortles than Patrick Mahomes.
The a part of this capsule that’s exhausting to swallow is the contract. Jacksonville was so intent on the assumption that he was “the man” that they signed him to a 5-year, $275M extension in 2024 — with $200M of his contract assured. Lawrence is tied for second amongst NFL quarterbacks in yearly common, however he’s surrounded by guys who’re infinitely higher than him: Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, and Jordan Love.
The brilliant spot in the event you’re a Jaguars fan: Not less than you’re taking part in him $5M much less per yr than Dak Prescott.
So it’s develop into time to just accept that Lawrence isn’t the generational QB who’s going to develop into the following nice one. He’s a strong man, and nothing extra. That’s a tough capsule to swallow, however at this level there’s no proof that Trevor Lawrence will be transcendent.
