This week in prediction markets, Donald Trump Jr. in some way managed to safe himself a seat on either side of the desk. The person has formally joined the advisory ranks at Polymarket whereas additionally moonlighting at Kalshi. One imagines the awkward small discuss when each corporations find yourself on the identical cocktail celebration.
Polymarket made the splashy announcement that Trump Jr. was not solely on the advisory board however that his funding agency, 1789 Capital, had put cash into the corporate. Over at Kalshi, they reminded us that Trump Jr. has been in an advisory position since January, although Axios dryly famous it is a paid gig reasonably than an funding. In different phrases, money one place, consulting charge the opposite.
Excited to welcome @DonaldJTrumpJr's fund @1789Capital as a strategic investor in Polymarket forward of our US launch.
Don will even be becoming a member of our advisory board.
Assembling the avengers. We're coming house
pic.twitter.com/w6MdZuoCXv
— Shayne Coplan
(@shayne_coplan) August 26, 2025
If you’re confused about how the identical particular person can advise the 2 greatest gamers in a distinct segment trade that thrives on wagers about who sneezes subsequent in Congress, you aren’t alone. However then once more, we dwell in an period the place battle of curiosity is extra of a dialog starter than a career-ender.
Polymarket, for its half, is making ready for its grand re-entry into the USA after a time-out courtesy of the Commodity Futures Buying and selling Fee. The CFTC had scolded the corporate in 2022 for allegedly working unregulated prediction markets, which is mainly the monetary regulator’s equal of sending you to your room with out dessert.
Now, with its acquisition of a licensed alternate this summer season, Polymarket hopes to return again stateside inside weeks, or perhaps the autumn if the paperwork strikes at authorities pace.
The one factor more durable to foretell than the following election is how Trump Jr. plans to stability his new double life. Fortunately, there are two corporations able to allow you to guess on it.
What’s on this week’s prediction markets
Kalshi
For causes identified solely to the gods of finance, Kalshi’s customers are as soon as once more glued to the Federal Reserve. Final week it was rates of interest, this week it’s whether or not Fed governor Lisa Cook dinner can be booted earlier than the 12 months is out. The market offers it a 31% likelihood, which is prediction-market communicate for “in all probability not, however wouldn’t or not it’s enjoyable if.”
The drama stems from President Trump’s announcement that he had fired Cook dinner, accusing her of mortgage fraud. Within the grand custom of Trump statements, it was accompanied by a social media letter spelling out her alleged sins.
JUST IN: Fed governor Lisa Cook dinner, who was “fired” by Trump, says she is going to proceed to hold out her duties
Solely 39% likelihood she’s out this 12 months pic.twitter.com/XrQJoaouzH
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) August 26, 2025
The regulation, nonetheless, says Fed governors can solely be eliminated for trigger, normally interpreted as severe misconduct, not a mortgage paperwork spat. Authorized specialists lined as much as politely recommend the president could have a tricky time making this stick.
In the meantime, Kalshi bought an sudden advertising and marketing increase from El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, who gleefully tweeted concerning the platform’s market on whether or not the nation’s Bitcoin stash will hit one billion {dollars} by the tip of 2025.
I might do the funniest factor proper now… https://t.co/82lENa4hgN
— Nayib Bukele (@nayibbukele) August 27, 2025
Odds on Kalshi jumped from 20% to 38% after Bukele hinted he “might do the funniest factor proper now,” a phrase that little question made each his finance minister and the Worldwide Financial Fund attain for aspirin.
To not be outdone, Polymarket rapidly listed its personal model of the guess, the place the chances sit a contact greater at 43%. Apparently nothing motivates the worldwide prediction market trade fairly like a Bitcoin-loving president with a Twitter behavior.
Polymarket
To not be unnoticed of the Lisa Cook dinner drama, Polymarket has its personal market on whether or not she can be out by the tip of 2025. Bettors are giving it solely 28%, a slight notch decrease than Kalshi’s take. Cook dinner herself has disregarded Trump’s dismissal letter, arguing that “for trigger” removals need to do with precise misconduct in workplace reasonably than something in her previous mortgage paperwork.
Polymarket merchants additionally see little likelihood of Jerome Powell being shoved apart in 2025, pricing his early exit at simply 10%. The message is evident: traders imagine central financial institution independence has a stronger backbone than the headlines recommend.
However Polymarket’s crown jewel this week had nothing to do with the Fed and every part to do with Taylor Swift’s ring finger. One consumer, who goes by the title “romanticpaul,” noticed the writing on the Instagram wall earlier than the remainder of us. Lower than 24 hours earlier than Swift and Travis Kelce introduced their engagement, romanticpaul loaded up on “Sure” shares of the couple tying the knot by year-end.
By the point the couple posted their coordinated selfies, he was sitting on a 153% revenue value greater than $3,000. The pace with which Polymarket bettors pivoted to wagering on being pregnant timelines suggests Swifties could also be outpacing Wall Road of their use of other information.
In fact, Polymarket can not resist wandering into darker corners of hypothesis. The platform is now providing bets on whether or not Houthi rebels will efficiently assault one other ship by August 31.
The market appeared barely two weeks after real-world strikes killed at the very least 5 seafarers, which has led to outrage from human rights teams and the transport trade alike. Critics name the contracts abhorrent, accusing the platform of normalizing the monetization of violence.
Regardless of the condemnation, quantity has already topped $23,000, with merchants shopping for “Sure” shares for fifteen cents.
It’s the type of guess that reminds you prediction markets should not simply mirrors of public curiosity but additionally of its worst impulses. For each romanticpaul driving a wave of celeb gossip, there are others keen to wager on whether or not missiles will fly.
Featured picture: Canva / Federal Reserve / Grok
The put up Prediction Pulse: Lisa Cook dinner faces Trump problem, Trump Jr. performs each markets, and Taylor Swift turns Polymarket right into a payday appeared first on ReadWrite.
