Prediction markets had themselves one other vigorous week. Kalshi rolled out shiny new NFL contracts at the same time as attorneys stored submitting lawsuits quicker than you’ll be able to say “parlay.”
This time it was a second tribal problem, geared toward retaining Kalshi off tribal lands. However the actual twist got here from the NCAA, which lastly peeked its head above the parapet and muttered one thing about integrity and prediction markets after Robinhood launched professional and faculty soccer prediction markets by means of its app.
NCAA assertion in response to Robinhood providing faculty soccer prediction markets:
"Sport integrity is paramount for the NCAA, and we’re deeply involved by unregulated and unprotected markets that pose a menace to competitors integrity and student-athlete security. We’ll…
— Pat Forde (@ByPatForde) August 21, 2025
Tim Buckley, the NCAA’s senior vp of exterior affairs, gave us the same old formal assertion: “Sport integrity is paramount for the NCAA, and we’re deeply involved by unregulated and unprotected markets that pose a menace to competitors integrity and student-athlete security.” He additionally promised that the NCAA would proceed working with trade leaders to “guarantee guardrails and rules.”
That every one sounds good, till you discover just a few lacking components. First, Kalshi is definitely regulated. Chances are you’ll not like the way it’s regulated, and it’s possible you’ll assume the CFTC is taking part in the position of the world’s sleepiest chaperone, however technically, it’s regulation. Polymarket, for the document, nonetheless can’t legally serve US customers, so the NCAA doesn’t must lose sleep over that half simply but.
Kalshi even has an integrity companion, IC360, although that’s a voluntary handshake, not a regulatory requirement. So when the NCAA says it desires to “work with trade leaders to assist guarantee guardrails,” what does that imply? As a result of spoiler alert – no rules are arriving. Even when the CFTC wakened tomorrow with a sudden ardour for sports activities contracts, we’d be years away from an precise rulebook.
So, the NCAA is left with the choice of cozying up on to Kalshi and pals. That’s not precisely a secure wager. And in the meantime, markets are transferring ahead anyway. What’s to cease Kalshi from providing props on faculty athletes? Not a lot. The CFTC isn’t going to gallop in on a white horse to guard March Insanity. And Kalshi’s current oversight doesn’t scream “line within the sand.”
And Polymarket isn’t about to take a seat this one out perpetually. Crypto.com even dabbled in prediction-style betting too. The NCAA’s adversaries are multiplying like heads on a hydra, and all of the NCAA has delivered to the combat thus far is a stern press launch.
To make issues worse, prediction markets aren’t the one drawback knocking on the door. There’s the small matter of AI-powered “common predictive intelligence,” which sounds just like the plot system from a techno-thriller however may find yourself turbocharging markets in methods the NCAA hasn’t even begun to think about.
In brief, the NCAA can preserve wringing its fingers about integrity. However until it speeds issues up, it dangers changing into the group that was “deeply involved” whereas everybody else began betting on whether or not the quarterback would oversleep his 8 am class.
What’s on this week’s prediction markets
Kalshi
Kalshi simply can’t escape Fed drama nowadays and the newest obsession is Jerome Powell’s speech on the Jackson Gap Financial Coverage Symposium in Wyoming, the place the world’s central bankers collect to speak store between August 21 and 23. Powell, nonetheless the Fed chair for now, has the unenviable activity of explaining the place the US financial system is heading whereas President Donald Trump continues his uncommon passion of publicly undermining central financial institution independence.
Markets are determined for Powell to drop hints. For 5 straight conferences the Fed has held charges regular, ignoring Trump’s cries for fast cuts. Policymakers need extra readability on what the president’s tariffs, deportation pushes, and common unpredictability are literally doing to the financial system. At Jackson Gap, Powell is predicted to sketch the outlook, his final speech on the annual central banker jamboree earlier than his time period runs out in Might.
Naturally, Kalshi customers are already buying and selling on the exact phrases Powell will use. Greater than $235,000 has been staked on phrases starting from the apparent “Symposium” to the nerdy “Stability of dangers.” A hanging 57% of merchants are betting Powell will discuss layoffs.
In the meantime, vultures have been circling over Powell’s successor. Christopher Waller, Michelle Bowman, and Trump’s ally Kevin Hassett are all thought-about contenders for Powell’s chair if the musical chairs on the Fed start in earnest.
On a aspect be aware, prediction markets are all of a sudden bustling with motion over the subsequent Democratic presidential nominee. California governor Gavin Newsom, regardless of being below hearth for allegedly blocking a on line casino after pocketing $2 million in tribal donations, has seen his odds skyrocket. He now sits at 28%, comfortably forward of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez at 13%, with practically $17 million wagered general. Pete Buttigieg, for the second, is jogging alongside in single digits at 9%.
BREAKING: Gavin Newsom's odds to be the 2028 Democratic nominee surge to a brand new all time excessive pic.twitter.com/puUWwNpr8G
— Kalshi (@Kalshi) August 20, 2025
Newsom, it appears, has cracked open the Trump playbook. In latest days he’s posted himself atop Mount Rushmore, been prayed over by Tucker Carlson, Child Rock, and a winged Hulk Hogan, and brought to writing in ALL CAPS on social media. “He’s attempting to imitate President Trump,” Steve Bannon instructed POLITICO, and the markets, not less than, are beginning to assume it’s working.
And if that weren’t sufficient, prediction markets are colliding with synthetic intelligence. Enter Prophet Area, a venture out of the College of Chicago’s SIGMA Lab, which exams AI fashions not on previous information however on reside unresolved occasions, many pulled straight from Kalshi and Polymarket. “By anchoring evaluations in unresolved, real-world occasions, Prophet Area ensures a degree taking part in area,” the researchers wrote.
Introducing Prophet Area — the AI benchmark for common predictive intelligence.
That’s, can AI really predict the long run by connecting at the moment’s dots?
What makes it particular?
– It might’t be hacked. Most benchmarks saturate over time, however right here fashions face reside, unseen… pic.twitter.com/rhwR5WlU9d
— Prophet Area (@ProphetArena) August 17, 2025
To date, machines appear to be holding their very own. GPT-5 tops the leaderboard with an 82.21% Brier rating, whereas OpenAI’s o3-mini leads in uncooked income when its calls are transformed into simulated wagers. Kalshi itself has been dabbling in AI, not too long ago linking up with Elon Musk’s Grok, whereas Polymarket has begun spitting out AI-generated summaries of its markets.
If the machines preserve bettering, they might strip away all of the sentiment and second-guessing that plague human merchants. No intestine emotions, no temper swings, simply chilly forecasting. In that case, the previous “knowledge of the group” would possibly quickly must share the stage with the knowledge of the algorithm.
Polymarket
If Kalshi is retaining issues buttoned-up, Polymarket is fortunately leaning into the spectacle of Powell’s Jackson Gap look. True to its social, buzzy repute, merchants have pushed the bounds of what counts as a market. Roughly 83% consider Powell will point out the pandemic, 63% are betting on unemployment, and the most well-liked wager of all is whether or not he’ll hassle to say “Good morning.”
Behind the cheekier bets lies the actual query whether or not Powell’s speech will sign the Fed’s newest coverage. Buyers are largely anticipating a quarter-point reduce in September, however as Deutsche Financial institution analysts warned earlier this week, the deal with may find yourself “creating uncertainty” slightly than clearing the air.
Featured picture: Canva / Grok
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