NBA Playoffs groups ranked by their 2025 championship probabilities

The 2025 NBA Playoffs are right here with three large favorites and a pool of contenders able to play the spoiler. The Boston Celtics try to develop into the league’s first back-to-back champion for the reason that 2017-2018 Golden State Warriors. Boston ran over the league on their solution to a championship final yr, however the path received’t be really easy this season.

The Cleveland Cavaliers earned the No. 1 seed within the East with a surprising 64-win season powered by their ‘core 4’ of Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Darius Garland, and Jarrett Allen. The Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder had been even higher because the leaders of the West, with a 68-win common season that noticed the crew submit the second-best net-rating in league historical past behind Michael Jordan’s 1996 Chicago Bulls.

The Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors each dream of getting within the championship combine out West. Can an Japanese Convention crew pull off an upset to make the convention finals? Right here’s how we’d rank each crew within the 2025 NBA Playoffs by their championship probabilities.

Be aware: this was printed earlier than the No. 8 seeds had been decided in every convention.

14. Orlando Magic

The Magic have an unimaginable basis with Franz Wagner, Paolo Banchero, and an elite protection that ranked No. 2 within the NBA this season. They only aren’t a critical crew but as a result of this could be the worst three-point taking pictures crew in league historical past relative to period. The Magic’s 31.8 p.c mark from three-point vary was dead-last within the league by a mile, and is very repugnant for a crew with two elite playmaking forwards. Orlando additionally did a poor job of optimizing Banchero’s touches, making an clearly gifted participant one of many least environment friendly high-volume scorers within the league. The Magic nonetheless have a whole lot of potential for the long run, however they may actually use a commerce or two and a few good free agent signings this summer season.

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13. Detroit Pistons

The Detroit Pistons are the feel-good story of the season after rising from an infinite rebuild to match their highest win whole (44 wins) since their 2008 heyday. The Pistons loaded up on shooters in the course of the offseason, and it allowed Cade Cunningham lastly begin taking part in like a No. 1 general decide. Cunningham’s sensational mix of scoring and playmaking will doubtless earn him an All-NBA nod, however it was doable as a result of Malik Beasley, Tim Hardaway Jr. spaced the ground for him. New head coach JB Bickerstaff deserves a ton of credit score throughout, however particularly for serving to the protection soar from No. 26 to No. 11 with fewer roster enhancements by way of defensive personnel. Tobias Harris deserves some credit score too for being the steadying veteran he was signed to be. The Pistons made the sixth-biggest win whole enchancment in league historical past this yr, and so they have an honest shot towards the New York Knicks within the first spherical. No matter their playoff efficiency, this season has already been an enormous success.

12. Milwaukee Bucks

The Bucks have been cursed by horrible damage luck within the playoffs ever since successful the 2021 NBA championship, and it’s occurred once more with Damian Lillard’s blood clot. Lillard has been out for a month after medical doctors found a blood clot in his calf, and whereas there’s some optimism he may return for the playoffs, nobody is aware of for certain. Milwaukee may have an opportunity both method as a result of they’ll declare to having the perfect participant within the Japanese Convention. Giannis Antetokounmpo had one other monster season of 30+ factors, 12 rebounds, and 6.5 assists per sport with nice protection. Now 30 years previous, Antetokounmpo has missed some or all of Milwaukee’s final two playoff runs, and must put the crew on his again to get previous the Pacers within the first spherical. The remainder of the Bucks are a bit shaky with out Lillard: Taurean Prince, Gary Trent Jr., and AJ Inexperienced have to splash threes, Kyle Kuzma must keep away from self-sabotage, and Brook Lopez should proceed to carry up brilliantly at each ends of the ground. The chips are stacked towards the Bucks once more enter the playoffs, however with Giannis, something is feasible.

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11. Minnesota Timberwolves

The Timberwolves matched their finest playoff run ever final yr with a Western Convention Finals look, however issues had been all the time going to be a bit bizarre this yr after they traded Karl-Anthony Cities a day earlier than coaching camp. Minnesota spent most of this season in play-in vary, however their killer run after the All-Star break elevated them into the No. 6 seed. The Wolves have dropped from No. 1 to No. 6 in protection this yr, however it’s nonetheless a crew that may be a main ache to play towards with Rudy Gobert defending the rim and Jaden McDaniels, Anthony Edwards, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the level of assault. Edwards has revamped to shot-diet to guide the NBA each three-point makes an attempt and three-point makes, however he stays at his most harmful driving downhill. Julius Randle and Donte DiVincenzo — the returning items from the KAT commerce — took a bit bit to search out their stride, however have every been taking part in higher as of late. Minnesota is larger and a bit extra athletic than the Lakers of their first spherical matchup, however LA is taken into account a decisive favourite. It’s on Edwards to placed on his Superman cape and drag this crew to a different playoff run. It hasn’t all the time regarded fairly for the Wolves this season, however it’s coming collectively late.

10. Indiana Pacers

The Pacers made a shock run to the convention finals a yr in the past after buying Pascal Siakam at mid-season. This yr, the total impact of the Siakam commerce got here into focus, as Indiana confirmed loads higher stability from their all-offense/no-defense strategy beforehand. The Pacers nonetheless completed No. 9 in offense this yr with Siakam placing collectively a robust general scoring season, and Tyrese Haliburton catching hearth late. The protection completed within the high half of the league too, with Myles Turner nonetheless efficient as a rim protector whereas Siakam and Aaron Nesmith may battle larger scorers. Probably the most encouraging signal for Indiana is that Haliburton seems to be again to the perfect model of himself recently. He’s not prone to be the perfect participant in a sequence with the Bucks, however Haliburton’s high-octane playmaking and pull-up taking pictures is what makes the Pacers a pest to take care of. If he’s on, one other Cinderella run isn’t unimaginable.

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9. New York Knicks

The Knicks altered the material of their roster by swinging a blockbuster commerce for Karl-Anthony Cities a day earlier than coaching camp opened. Cities’ first yr has been all the pieces the Knicks may have fairly anticipated: unbelievable offensive manufacturing anchored by elite exterior taking pictures, with extraordinarily shaky inside protection. New York is betting that Jalen Brunson’s two-man sport with KAT can carry the offense (the Knicks completed No. 5 in offensive effectivity) whereas OG Anunoby, Mikal Bridges, and Josh Hart lock down on protection. It sounds good in principle, however there are a pair points: the Knicks’ starters every ranked within the top-25 of minutes per sport this season, with Bridges taking part in extra minutes than anybody since 2016 James Harden. The depth of this roster simply isn’t good, and it reveals up offensively when Brunson goes to the bench. It’s additionally simply laborious to construct a nice protection with a shaky rim protector like Cities, and one other minus defender in Brunson in each lineup. This has been a profitable first yr for the Knicks’ all-in period, however this crew wants just a few extra tweaks earlier than it’s actually a championship contender.

8. Los Angeles Clippers

The Clippers time as a contender appeared destined to finish once they misplaced Paul George in free company for nothing coming off an All-NBA season over the summer season. It seems it was the perfect factor that would ever occur to them. As George launched into a misplaced yr in Philadelphia, the Clippers rebuilt their crew across the James Harden-Ivica Zubac pick-and-roll and spent their accessible cap area on defenders. Kawhi Leonard has been recovering slowly however certainly alongside the way in which, and it beginning to seem like the nearer this crew wants over the previous few weeks. Leonard hasn’t completed a playoff run wholesome since 2020 contained in the bubble. Betting on Harden within the playoffs is a equally doomed proposition historically-speaking. With Norm Powell having a profession yr and sufficient defensive size across the scorers, there’s a pathway to speaking yourselves into the Clippers making a deep run. The hypotheticals are simply barely too large for my liking.

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7. Houston Rockets

The Rockets have gotten among the best examples of the right way to pull off a contemporary NBA rebuild, going from the dregs of the post-James Harden period to the No. 2 seed within the West in simply two years. Head coach Ime Udoka deserves a lot of the credit score for turning Houston into a tricky, bodily crew that completed because the league’s runaway chief in offensive rebound fee in addition to No. 5 in defensive effectivity. The Rockets don’t have a star creator within the halfcourt which might result in some ugly offensive possessions. Can you actually win with protection and offensive rebounding within the playoffs? The highlight can be on 22-year-old Turkish heart Alperen Sengun to indicate the total extent of his All-Star leap this season. Sengun’s inside scoring and playmaking is the Rockets’ finest wager when the sport settles down, however Houston’s lack of taking pictures means he’ll be seeing further limbs on each contact. Amen Thompson additionally has the possibility for a popping out occasion after a breakout sophomore season. Thompson is the perfect pure athlete within the NBA, and he’ll be tasked with guarding Stephen Curry whereas contributing on offense. The Rockets are younger and don’t have a real star, however their overwhelming depth and athleticism may nonetheless play effectively within the postseason.

6. Denver Nuggets

Nikola Jokic refused to let the Nuggets crumble this yr. The 30-year-old heart minted his standing as the perfect participant on the earth with a season for the ages, ending top-3 within the NBA in scoring, assists, rebounds, and steals whereas taking pictures practically 42 p.c from three-point vary. Jokic did all the pieces for Denver, however the truth that he needed to shoulder a lot accountability solely two years after successful a championship is troubling. Firing head coach Mike Malone and GM Calvin Sales space days earlier than the playoffs reveals how poisonous the scenario in Denver has been. Jokic dragged his crew to 50 wins, however he’ll need assistance if the Nuggets wish to go on one other lengthy playoff run. Jamal Murray is the most important X-Issue within the playoffs. The 28-year-old broke down in final yr’s playoffs, however has been taking part in higher recently after a sluggish begin to this yr. Aaron Gordon and Michael Porter Jr. additionally want signature playoff runs, whereas children like Christian Braun, Peyton Watson, and Jalen Pickett get a giant alternative to show themselves. The Russell Westbrook issue can be lurking right here. He’s had a strong season, however it seems like catastrophe is all the time ready across the nook. The Nuggets have the perfect participant in any sequence, and that’s an unlimited benefit. If Jokic can lead this crew on one other deep run, it is going to be one of many biggest accomplishments of his profession.

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5. Golden State Warriors

The Warriors regarded poised to expire the clock on the Stephen Curry period till a miraculous commerce deadline deal fell into their lap. Golden State has been reborn with Jimmy Butler in tow, giving them one other ferocious defender in addition to somebody who can put strain on the rim and free throw line. Butler’s presence has allowed Stephen Curry extra freedom to work his magic off the ball, and even at age-37 he’s nonetheless able to taking up a playoff sequence. The Warriors nonetheless have loads of questions: How ought to the middle rotation play out? Does Jonathan Kuminga have any position on this crew? Can Butler once more rise to the event as a scorer within the playoffs? All Curry may ask for is an opportunity, and it seems like he has it this yr. The Rockets can overwhelm Golden State with athleticism and youth, however one aspect has No. 30 and the opposite doesn’t. Rockets followers know that in addition to anybody through the years. It’s straightforward to jot down off the Warriors as too small or too previous, however this crew simply works with Butler if he continues to achieve peak kind the playoffs. The Warriors are removed from a favourite this time round, however there’s actual hope for one more playoff run, and generally that’s all you want when you may have Stephen Curry.

4. Los Angeles Lakers

The 2024-25 NBA season will all the time be remembered because the yr the Lakers lucked into buying and selling for Luka Doncic. The deal has paid speedy dividends regardless of it leaving the Lakers and not using a starting-caliber large man, and with Doncic recovering from the longest damage of his profession. Doncic is a confirmed playoff killer, and LeBron James is an unimaginable co-star even at 40 years previous. Austin Reaves offers the Lakers a bonafide third scorer who can takeover any sport. The Lakers lack a star heart, however they’re not precisely small, with strong-and-long gamers at nearly each different place. Head coach JJ Redick has proven a formidable means to regulate to matchups in his first season, and he’ll have to determine a solution to decrease the roster shortcomings. The Lakers additionally obtained an encouraging draw, avoiding the Thunder till a possible Western Convention Finals sequence. Even with their flaws, LA has proven sufficient offensive firepower and defensive ingenuity for an actual run. Mavericks followers will undergo each step of the way in which.

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3. Cleveland Cavaliers

It was cheap to count on the Cavs to take one other step ahead with new head coach Kenny Atkinson this yr after accidents like Darius Garland’s damaged jaw handcuffed the roster final yr. Nobody thought Cleveland would leap to 64 wins and bonafide championship competition standing, although. The Cavs had been a wagon all yr, with two 6-foot All-Stars guards main the offense and a pair of 7-footers anchoring the protection. The Cavs had the No. 1 offense within the league, with a terrifying mix of three-point taking pictures and ball motion routing opponents all yr. Donovan Mitchell deserves credit score for taking a small step again in accountability as Garland roared again to All-Star kind. Evan Mobley’s All-NBA soar was one of many season’s largest developments, and Jarrett Allen was as regular as ever taking pictures 70 p.c on the rim and offering strong protection inside. The Cavs’ depth was an enormous asset all yr too, and gamers like Ty Jerome and Max Strus might want to keep scorching within the playoffs. Having two small guards is all the time a possible postseason pitfall, however Cleveland is betting they’ll get groups into the blender earlier than the mismatch searching takes maintain. The Cavs are already an incredible story. They’ve an actual probability to jot down an ideal ending because the playoffs start.

2. Boston Celtics

The Celtics dominated the playoffs final yr on the way in which to one of the crucial convincing championship runs in latest reminiscence, however there’s no denying that they confronted a simple path to get there. Boston has regarded like a front-runner to go back-to-back from the very begin of the season, and it completed the yr No. 2 in offense and No. 4 in protection. Jayson Tatum is poised for his fourth straight First-Group All-NBA choice, and stays the steadying two-way drive each nice crew wants. Jaylen Brown’s cumbersome knee presents a possible drawback for Boston, however don’t overlook this crew coasted to a championship with out Kristaps Porzingis for a lot of the playoffs final yr. If Porzingis can keep wholesome and productive, and if Al Horford can fend off age-related decline for just a few extra months, the Celtics have sufficient firepower to go back-to-back even when Brown isn’t in high form. The Celtics nonetheless take and extra extra threes than anybody, and there’s no solution to defend them in a lot area when the photographs are falling. With zero weak hyperlinks to assault defensively, pristine spacing, and a superb head coach, Boston has the substances to be the NBA’s first repeat champion in seven years.

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1. Oklahoma Metropolis Thunder

It’s laborious to imagine how dominant the Thunder had been this season when you think about that Chet Holmgren, who appeared destined for an All-NBA nod this yr, solely performed 32 video games due to a pelvic damage. Nicely, OKC nonetheless went 42-8 with out their second-best participant, displaying off the embarrassment of riches that’s the envy of the NBA. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the doubtless MVP, and he’s absolutely claimed the title of the perfect guard in basketball. The Thunder received SGA’s minutes by an absurd +918 factors this season, with the guard’s unstoppable mixture of rim attacking, mid-range pull-ups, and foul drawing pacing their ascendancy. With Holmgren now again, Oklahoma Metropolis has been experimenting with two large lineups alongside Isaiah Hartenstein. The pairing has solved the crew’s rebounding points from final yr, however opens up some new issues with much less pace and fewer taking pictures on the ground. Up to now, the Thunder have been successful with protection, forcing turnovers at a historic fee which have led to so many straightforward buckets the opposite method. Can OKC maintain turning groups over when the sport slows down within the playoffs? Is Jalen Williams able to take a playoff leap as a secondary halfcourt creator if they’ll’t? There’s cause to be skeptical of the Thunder till they absolutely breakthrough, however this crew is ready up for championships now and effectively into the long run. This could possibly be the beginning of one thing particular for OKC.