OPINION — As Israel’s unprecedented navy marketing campaign and concentrating on of Iranian navy leaders and scientists wreaked havoc throughout Iran final week, Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei retreated to a bunker and initiated deliberations over his successor. With the 2024 loss of life of a former main contender, President Ebrahim Raisi, and Khamenei’s latest sidelining of his son, Mojtaba, the highly effective head of Iran’s judiciary and former intelligence minister, Gholam-Hoseyn Mohseni-Ejei, is probably going a critical candidate for the position of the Islamic Republic’s subsequent Supreme Chief.
Mohseni-Ejei possesses formidable credentials for making certain the survival of the Islamic Revolution, the regime’s highest strategic objective. A longtime insider, his profession bridges the 2 most crucial organs of inner regime preservation: the judiciary and the Ministry of Intelligence. He had deep-rooted ties to Raisi, his predecessor as judiciary head, and to the present intelligence minister, Esmail Khatib. These relations mirror a long time of institutional collaboration, belief constructing, and ideological alignment. All three males reduce their tooth within the judiciary and intelligence paperwork, sharing not solely a hardline outlook however shut connections with Khamenei. With Raisi gone and the regime underneath siege, Khamenei might view Mohseni-Ejei as essentially the most skilled and reliable successor to steer the Islamic Republic via a second of existential peril. If that’s the case, he virtually actually will make this recognized to the Meeting of Specialists, the physique of clerics that chooses the Supreme Chief.
Mohseni-Ejei’s ascent isn’t primarily based merely on his private ties. It additionally displays the rising centrality of the intelligence-security-judiciary triad in safeguarding the regime’s continuity. Extra not too long ago, because the Israel-Iran struggle has intensified, Iranian leaders have shifted their focus additional inward— ramping up inner surveillance, looking for traitors, and shutting down communications with the surface world. On this context, his management over the judiciary and having a good friend head the Ministry of Intelligence doubtlessly present Mohseni-Ejei unequalled leverage over the members of the Meeting of Specialists and different highly effective figures amongst Iran’s political factions.
The Cipher Temporary has been speaking with the foremost specialists on the area because the shock U.S. strike on Iran’s nuclear facilities- together with former Nationwide Intelligence Supervisor for Iran at ODNI and power professional Norm Roule and former CIA Director Common David Petraeus (Ret.) – about what comes subsequent in Iran. Watch the interviews solely on The Cipher Temporary’s YouTube Channel and subscribe to be sure to keep updated on how the specialists see occasions unfolding.
Underneath Mohseni-Ejei’s management, the judiciary embraced expansive interpretations of nationwide safety regulation to suppress political unrest, ethnic dissent, and defiance of intrusive morality legal guidelines. Khatib’s MOIS has labored in tandem, deploying aggressive surveillance and conducting wide-scale arrests to suppress dissent. To alleviate some stress from a public indignant about Iran’s failing economic system and petty repressive measures corresponding to necessary hijab, the judiciary has lowered enforcement of some restrictions over the previous yr. Nonetheless, the collaboration between Mohseni-Ejei and Khatib since 2021 represents one of the coordinated durations of state repression throughout the regime’s four-plus a long time of existence.
Crucially, Khamenei’s latest determination to supply the Meeting of Specialists with three most popular names—an unprecedented transfer within the Islamic Republic’s historical past—suggests a realistic urgency favoring survival over course of. If Khamenei values institutional loyalty, ideological orthodoxy, and the equipment of home management, Mohseni-Ejei could be the logical alternative. His previous management of the MOIS and present management of the judiciary give him operational expertise in each managing crises and defending the Islamic revolution. Furthermore, his long-standing ties to Khamenei himself—courting again to his early years monitoring potential “deviation” inside the intelligence providers—counsel belief constructed over a long time of mutual survival.
Critics might cite Mohseni-Ejei’s position in previous abuses, together with the post-2009 Inexperienced Motion crackdown and his promotion of a crackdown on gown code infractions that led to the Mahsa Amini protests of 2022. Nevertheless, inside the present regime such episodes are usually not stains however {qualifications}. With america now immediately concerned within the struggle, Iran’s management might gravitate towards a person whose total profession has been outlined by countering sedition, exposing conspiracies, and upholding ideological self-discipline via the courts and the intelligence equipment.
In Iran’s more and more closed and militarized political sphere, the trail to supreme authority might not lie in clerical scholarship or charisma, however in institutional command and operational loyalty. Mohseni-Ejei, a consummate enforcer, could be the final man standing when the Meeting of Specialists makes its fateful alternative.
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