JPMorgan analyst Michael W. Mueller introduced a number of rankings adjustments throughout the agency’s quarterly CRE replace webinar.
The analyst upgraded Ventas Inc. VTR from Impartial to Obese and raised the agency’s December 2025 worth goal to $72 from $70.
Mueller cited strong inside and exterior development, together with double-digit same-store internet working revenue positive aspects and a gradual tempo of acquisitions, as key drivers supporting a optimistic outlook for normalized FFO per share development.
The analyst famous that in comparison with peer Welltower, Ventas seems extra attractively valued, particularly on an implied cap fee foundation, despite the fact that its development potential could also be barely decrease.
Whereas exterior development has slowed throughout the broader REIT sector, Mueller mentioned Ventas’s continued success positions it as a relative outperformer.
The value goal hike displays updates to the analyst’s monetary mannequin, which now incorporates improved development visibility. The revised goal is predicated on a dividend low cost mannequin assuming a 5.25% long-term development fee, a 95% AFFO payout ratio, and a high-8% low cost fee.
Mueller downgraded Americold Realty Belief Inc. COLD from Obese to Impartial and lower the agency’s December 2025 worth goal to $21 from $24.
The analyst cited weaker throughput volumes and decrease occupancy charges as key headwinds limiting near-term efficiency. Regardless of buying and selling at considerably decrease EBITDA multiples than final 12 months — providing long-term revaluation potential — investor sentiment stays centered on present operational pressures.
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The lowered worth goal displays decrease earnings estimates and the appliance of a better 11.5% low cost fee within the agency’s DCF mannequin, underscoring elevated uncertainty and tempered development expectations. A restoration is projected in 2026, contingent on improved macroeconomic situations.
Mueller downgraded Federal Realty Funding Belief FRT to Impartial from Obese and set a December 2025 worth goal of $108.
The analyst cited a lowered deal with growth and redevelopment tasks — at the moment key development drivers for a number of different retail REITs — as a cause for the downgrade.
He additionally famous that buyers are taking a cautious stance towards FRT’s technique of coming into newer markets, resembling Kansas Metropolis, by divesting high-quality belongings. This pivot could take time to yield seen operational advantages.
Given the present macroeconomic backdrop, sentiment has shifted in favor of grocery-anchored and neighborhood-centric REITs, that are seen as extra defensive in comparison with FRT’s portfolio.
JPMorgan’s $108 goal is predicated on a reduced money circulate mannequin incorporating a 4.4% long-term AFFO development fee, a 95% payout ratio, and a high-8% low cost fee.
Mueller downgraded Lineage Inc. LINE to Underweight from Impartial and lowered the agency’s December 2025 worth goal to $50 from $55.
The analyst famous a broader choice for different REIT sectors and shares, regardless of the long-term deserves of the Lineage platform.
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He identified that the chilly storage phase is at the moment going through decrease throughput volumes, that are creating occupancy and pricing headwinds prone to influence near-term efficiency.
The analyst additionally flagged that Lineage’s 2025 AFFO per share outlook falls beneath the low finish of administration steerage, whereas development in 2026 is predicted to be constrained by the roll-off of rate of interest hedges.
The revised $50 worth goal is predicated on a dividend low cost mannequin utilizing a 5.3% long-term development fee, 95% AFFO payout ratio and an roughly 10.75% low cost fee.
Value Actions: At publication on Monday, VTR shares have been buying and selling larger by 1.63 at $63.47, COLD was up 0.12% at $16.81, FRT was down 0.13% at $95.28, and LINE was up by 0.69% at $45.07.
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