For a short second, it seemed like a federal commerce courtroom would halt President Donald Trump’s Liberation Day tariffs, leaving everybody to marvel what that might imply for value hikes. However by the tip of the next day one other courtroom had stepped in so we’re again to questioning when and if reciprocal tariffs and Trump’s proposed 25% Apple tariff will kick in. So you will forgive us if we do not sound very sure about how all of this might have an effect on the worth of the brand new iPhone.
We won’t even assure that will probably be known as iPhone 17, contemplating Apple might rebrand its working system this fall in order that the present iOS18 is changed by iOS 26.
Apple spent a lot of the early a part of this 12 months dodging tariffs, stockpiling telephones earlier than tariffs took impact and making an exemption record for a lot of of its merchandise. However its luck appeared to expire after Apple CEO Tim Cook dinner introduced throughout a Might 1 earnings name that US iPhone manufacturing would principally be sourced from India. A couple of weeks later, Trump threatened Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outdoors the US.
Is that tariff on prime of the paused reciprocal tariffs? Whereas it could be unrealistic for Apple to cross alongside the entire price of the tariff to customers (who’s going to purchase a $4,000 iPhone?), it additionally appears unlikely that the tech large might take up the prices of a 170% tariff hike (that is 25% Apple tariff + 145% reciprocal tariff on China, the place Apple has produced most of its iPhones).
Plus, there are many elements that may have an effect on the worth of an iPhone, together with manufacturing prices and the general well being of the US economic system. My colleague Patrick Holland has been reviewing telephones for CNET since 2016 and monitoring costs over time. He says the new iPhone is due for a value hike no matter what occurs with tariffs.
Apple didn’t reply to a request for remark for an earlier model of this story.
We can’t know the precise value for the following iPhone till its launch, which is anticipated to be in September. However we have pored over all of the leaks, rumors and predictions about costs and we discovered methods that will help you save if a brand new iPhone is in your future.
Learn extra: Need to Purchase a New iPhone? Now’s Not the Time and This is Why
How tariffs might have an effect on the price of the following iPhone
Amid Trump’s ongoing tariff bender, increased reciprocal tariffs are at the moment on pause. Nevertheless, Trump took to social media on Might 28, threatening Apple with a 25% tariff on all iPhones made outdoors the US, though the timeline is unclear. There’s at the moment a ten% baseline tariff on all imports and a 30% tariff on items from China, the place Apple nonetheless manufactures most of its merchandise. These charges can also begin to rise in July when the preliminary tariff pause expires, which might result in increased costs on the whole lot — together with the rumored iPhone 17.
The tech large has moved some US iPhone manufacturing from China to India, which at the moment has a decrease tariff charge. Nevertheless, Trump known as out Apple CEO Tim Cook dinner to as an alternative transfer iPhone manufacturing to the US. Most specialists think about this an unrealistic demand, particularly within the quick time period, due to increased labor and manufacturing prices within the US. Estimates have prompt {that a} US-made iPhone would price as a lot as $3,500.
That leaves costs for the following iPhone in limbo. Trump’s administration known as the exemption record “momentary” in early April, saying that exemptions would finish in “a month or two.” Across the similar time, Trump mentioned that semiconductors, which energy tech merchandise, will finally be positioned in a distinct “tariff bucket.” Nevertheless, no particulars have been shared in regards to the timeline or anticipated tariff percentages.
With all of the reprieves showing to be momentary, tariffs might nonetheless doubtlessly have an effect on costs by the point the rumored iPhone 17 is anticipated to be launched.
If the unique reciprocal tariff pause expires, for example, taxes on imports from India would rise from 10% to 26% beginning in July. If the 90-day pause for China expires, tariffs on that nation would leap from 30% to 145% in August. It is unclear if Apple’s 25% tariff could be along with or as an alternative of particular person international locations’ import duties.
Specialists level out {that a} tariff charge hike would not essentially imply an iPhone’s value would enhance on the similar charge however most anticipate at the very least some affect.
And the place the telephone is assembled is barely a part of the tariff equation. Apple sources parts for the iPhone from dozens of different international locations, which might additionally doubtlessly have an effect on the worth.
Primarily based on the place tariffs stand now, this is how a lot you may doubtlessly pay for the following iPhone based mostly on present iPhone 16 costs. These are our estimates and never official pricing from Apple:
Potential iPhone value with reciprocal tariffs
| Present value | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $659 | $755 | $779 | $1,468 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $912 | $1,045 | $1,078 | $2,031 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,022 | $1,171 | $1,208 | $2,276 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,099 | $1,259 | $1,299 | $2,448 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,319 | $1,511 | $1,559 | $2,938 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $1,759 | $2,015 | $2,079 | $3,918 |
If the 25% Apple tariff takes impact, this is the potential value enhance for a brand new iPhone, based mostly on the present iPhone 16 costs. Once more, Apple is unlikely to lift costs at a 1-to-1 charge with tariff hikes however this desk incorporates reciprocal and potential Apple particular tariffs to calculate potential costs:
Potential iPhone costs with reciprocal and Apple tariffs mixed
| Present value | Present 10% tariff on items from India | Potential 26% tariff for India | Present 30% tariff on items from China | Potential 145% tariff for China | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| iPhone 16E (128GB) | $599 | $809 | $904 | $928 | $1,617 |
| iPhone 16 (128GB) | $829 | $1,119 | $1,252 | $1,285 | $2,238 |
| iPhone 16 Plus (128GB) | $929 | $1,254 | $1,403 | $1,440 | $2,508 |
| iPhone 16 Professional (128GB) | $999 | $1,349 | $1,508 | $1,548 | $2,697 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (256GB) | $1,199 | $1,619 | $1,810 | $1,858 | $3,237 |
| iPhone 16 Professional Max (1TB) | $1,599 | $2,159 | $2,414 | $2,478 | $4,317 |
What else might trigger the brand new iPhone’s value to extend?
Trump instantly criticized retailers like Amazon and Walmart once they prompt that tariffs might end in increased costs so it stands to cause that Apple will not instantly blame tariffs for potential value hikes that might provoke a Trump tirade.
Somewhat, Apple might attribute the worth enhance to improved options and design prices. No matter tariffs, Apple has plans to lift iPhone costs this 12 months, The Wall Road Journal reported.
Specialists say Apple could also be overdue for a value enhance anyway. It has been 5 years for the reason that primary iPhone mannequin elevated in value and every iteration of the iPhone typically improves on options from the earlier model.
Holland notes that the bottom iPhone mannequin hasn’t gone up in value since 2020. His analysis factors to the usual iPhone mannequin’s value growing roughly each 5 years, between $50 and $130. Primarily based on this proof and the iPhone 16’s present value of $829, we might anticipate the brand new iPhone to price someplace between $879 and $959.
What is going to the iPhone 17 Air price?
Early rumors had the iPhone 17 Air topping the iPhone Professional in value. Nevertheless, a March Bloomberg report prompt the telephone might price about $900, much like the present iPhone 16 Plus’s price ticket. These estimates are based mostly on the present prices and should not embody the potential affect tariffs might have on an ultrathin iPhone’s value.
How the economic system might have an effect on iPhone costs
Uncertainty within the US economic system — partly due to the aforementioned tariff turmoil — has left many cautious about what’s to return. Whereas the current settlement with China to pause tariffs helped the inventory market to principally recuperate from the dive it took after Trump’s Liberation Day, that reprieve affords solely momentary reduction.
Issues in regards to the dangers of upper unemployment and better inflation have left the Federal Reserve in wait-and-see mode for decreasing rates of interest. Larger rates of interest may cause firms like Apple to drag again on spending and funding. Mixed with increased tariffs, that pullback might doubtlessly result in world provide chain disruptions. Fewer iPhones obtainable out there might result in increased costs.
If inflation resurges, rising prices might pressure Apple to extend the following iPhone’s value.
One tiny shiny facet, in idea, is {that a} weakening economic system might pressure Apple to carry off on elevating costs so it could actually keep aggressive. However that will not provide a lot comfort when you’re anxious about spending cash due to a possible recession.
Will older iPhones price extra, too?
One method to save on Apple merchandise is to purchase final 12 months’s mannequin as an alternative of the most recent launch. Nevertheless, if the brand new iPhone is dramatically dearer when it is launched, demand might enhance for the older fashions and that might result in value hikes on older fashions, too.
The flip facet of that is that if the brand new iPhone’s costs rise and you’ve got an older iPhone, your previous iPhone would additionally seemingly enhance in worth, Holland mentioned.
Buying and selling or promoting a used iPhone will help offset the associated fee when you do determine to purchase the brand new iPhone.
Different methods Apple might elevate costs
Even when Apple decides to carry the following iPhone’s value regular, there are different methods for the tech large to recoup elevated prices.
Apple might doubtlessly offset the affect of tariffs by elevating the worth on its providers — together with its music, information and information plans — based on provide chain knowledgeable Joe Hudicka.
“We’ll see these markups within the subscription providers first as a result of they’re going to seem smaller,” he mentioned. “Shoppers will nonetheless pay, simply not unexpectedly.”
Ought to we imagine rumors and hypothesis about iPhone costs?
So significantly, how a lot is a brand new iPhone going to price? The reality is, we won’t say with any certainty what the ultimate numbers can be. Our assessments are based mostly on ever-changing tariff insurance policies, previous pricing traits, rumors and leaks which are typically based mostly on insider data. However till Apple releases the rumored iPhone 17, we are able to solely provide our greatest estimates for the way a lot the ultimate price ticket can be.
