About six weeks ago, I despatched an e mail to Satya Nadella complaining concerning the monolithic winner-takes-all structure that Silicon Valley appears to check for AI, contrasting it with “the structure of participation” that had pushed earlier expertise revolutions, most notably the web and open supply software program. I suspected that Satya is likely to be sympathetic due to previous conversations we’d had when his ebook Hit Refresh was printed in 2017.
I made the case that we want an structure for the AI business that allows cooperating AIs, that isn’t a winner-takes-all market, and that doesn’t make present corporations in each business merely the colonial domains of extractive AI conquerors, which appears to be the Silicon Valley imaginative and prescient.
Little did I do know that Microsoft already had one thing within the works that was a robust demonstration of what I hoped for. It’s known as NLWeb (Pure Language Net), and it’s being introduced at this time. Satya supplied O’Reilly the possibility to be a part of the rollout, and we jumped at it.
My concepts are rooted in a notion about how expertise markets evolve. We’ve got lived by means of three eras in computing. Every started with distributed innovation, went by means of a interval of fierce competitors, and ended with monopolistic gatekeepers. Within the first age (mainframes), it was IBM, within the second (PCs) Microsoft, and within the third (web and cell) the oligopoly of Google, Amazon, Meta, and Apple.
The error that everybody makes is a rush to crown the brand new monopolist firstly of what’s basically a large open discipline in the beginning of a brand new disruptive market. When the non-public pc challenged IBM’s hardware-based monopoly, the race was to turn out to be the dominant private pc {hardware} firm. Microsoft received as a result of it realized that software program, not {hardware}, was the brand new supply of aggressive benefit.
The story repeated itself in the beginning of the web period. Marc Andreessen’s Netscape sought to interchange Microsoft as a dominant software program platform, apart from the web quite than the PC. AOL realized that content material and neighborhood, not software program, was going to be a supply of aggressive benefit on the web, however they made the identical mistake of assuming the tip sport of consolidated monopoly quite than embracing the early stage of distributed innovation.
So right here we’re in the beginning of the fourth age, the age of AI, and as soon as once more, everyone seems to be dashing to crown the brand new king. A lot of the chatter is whether or not OpenAI or one among its rivals would be the subsequent Google, when it appears to me that they’re extra probably the subsequent Netscape or the subsequent AOL. DeepSeek has thrown a bomb into the coronation parade, however we haven’t but absolutely realized the depth of the reset, or conceptualized what comes subsequent. That’s usually discovered by means of a interval of distributed innovation.
The time period “the structure of participation” initially got here to me as a proof of why Unix had succeeded as a collaborative challenge regardless of its proprietary license whereas different initiatives failed regardless of having open supply licenses. Unix was designed as a small working system kernel supporting layers of utilities and functions that would come from anybody, so long as they adopted the identical guidelines. Complicated behaviors might be assembled by passing data between small packages utilizing normal information codecs. It was a protocol-centric view of how advanced software program techniques ought to be constructed, and the way they may evolve collaboratively. The web was additionally developed as an identical distributed, protocol-based system.
That idea ran by means of my internet advocacy within the early ’90s, open supply advocacy within the late ’90s, and Net 2.0 within the aughts. Participatory markets are revolutionary markets; prematurely consolidated markets, not a lot. The obstacles to entry within the early PC market have been very low, entrepreneurship excessive. Ditto for the Net, ditto for open supply software program and for Net 2.0. For late Silicon Valley, fixated on untimely monopolization by way of “blitzscaling” (suppose Uber, Lyft, and WeWork as examples, and now OpenAI and Anthropic), not a lot. It’s turn out to be a sort of central planning. A small cadre of deep-pocketed traders decide the winners early on and attempt to drown out competitors with huge quantities of capital quite than permitting the experimentation and competitors that enables for the invention of true product-market match.
And I don’t suppose we now have that product-market match for AI but. Product-market match isn’t simply getting plenty of customers. It’s additionally discovering enterprise fashions that pay the prices of these companies, and that create worth for greater than the centralized platform. As Invoice Gates famously informed Chamath Palihapitiya when he was operating the nascent (and in the end failed) Fb developer platform, “This isn’t a platform. A platform is when the financial worth of all people that makes use of it, exceeds the worth of the corporate that creates it. Then it’s a platform.”
To be clear, that’s not simply worth to finish customers. It’s worth to builders and entrepreneurs. And meaning the chance to revenue from their improvements, to not have that worth instantly harvested by a dominant gatekeeper. We could anticipate that within the later, enshittified stage of the market, when it’s ripe for disruption, however we don’t wish to see it early on!
That’s why I’ve been rooting for one thing totally different. A world the place specialised content material suppliers can construct AI interfaces to their very own content material quite than having it sucked up by AI mannequin builders who provide up companies primarily based on it to their very own customers.
Way back to our 2017 dialog, Satya had referred to AI as “the third runtime.” That’s, Home windows was the primary mass market software program runtime; the online was the second. (Arguably, cell was the third however for this function, let’s think about it an extension of the second.) What may that third runtime appear to be? An enormous centralized platform? I hope not. Firms comparable to Salesforce and Bret Taylor’s Sierra are betting on brokers which might be frontends to corporations, their companies, and their enterprise processes, in the identical approach that their web sites or cell apps are at this time. Others are betting on client-side brokers that may entry distant websites, however usually by calling APIs and even performing the equal of display screen scraping.
Anthropic’s Mannequin Context Protocol, an open normal for connecting AI brokers and assistants to information sources, was step one towards a protocol-centric imaginative and prescient of cooperating AIs. It has generated lots of well-deserved enthusiasm. Google’s A2A is a futuristic imaginative and prescient of how AI brokers may cooperate. That is all going to take years to get proper.
However all corporations want at the least a begin on an AI frontend at this time. There’s a superb line from C. S. Lewis’s novel Until We Have Faces: “We can’t see the gods head to head till we now have faces.” Proper now, some corporations are capable of provide an AI face to their customers, however most don’t. NLWeb is an opportunity for each firm to have an AI interface (or just “face”) for not simply their human customers however any bot that chooses to go to.
NLWeb is absolutely appropriate with MCP however presents one thing a lot less complicated, and for present web sites, rather more instantly actionable: a easy mechanism so as to add AI search and different companies to an present internet frontend. We put collectively our demo AI search frontend for O’Reilly in a number of days. We’ll be rolling it out to the general public quickly.
