McLaren put in a powerful effort in qualifying for the Method 1 Belgian Grand Prix, as Lando Norris captured pole place and teammate Oscar Piastri will begin alongside him on the entrance row.
However the job will not be achieved, and with Pirelli throwing the grid a curveball not seen since 2022, the Belgian Grand Prix could also be a voyage into the unknown.
Let’s dive into the technique choices for the Belgian Grand Prix.
What occurred within the 2024 Belgian Grand Prix?
To borrow a phrase, answering that query requires a two-stop strategy.
The three podium finishers within the closing classification — Lewis Hamilton, Oscar Piastri, and Charles Leclerc — all used a two-stop technique, starting on the medium tires after which switching to hards, and hards once more. For instance, Hamilton pitted on Lap 11 to modify to a set of arduous tires, after which once more on Lap 26 for a contemporary set of hards, going the remainder of the way in which on this 44-lap race.
However Hamilton crossed the road second, behind teammate George Russell, who made a daring resolution, making an attempt a one-stop technique. Russell began P6 on a set of medium tires, pitted on Lap 10 for a set of hards, and went the gap, holding off Hamilton down the stretch on worn arduous tires for the win.
Nevertheless, Russell was disqualified as his automobile didn’t make the minimal weight, and that technique might have performed a job in that disqualification. At over seven kilometers lengthy, Spa is the longest observe on the present F1 schedule. Consequently, when drivers take the checkered flag, they shortly pull off the racing line and cease, reasonably than make the normal cooldown lap across the circuit.
That prevented Russell from selecting up further rubber on that lap, and he got here in 1.5 kilograms below the required minimal weight.
That disqualification dropped Russell from P1, and noticed his teammate promoted to the win.
Nevertheless, Russell was not the one driver who completed within the High 10 to tug off a one-stop technique. Fernando Alonso began on a set of mediums, stopped on Lap 13 for a set of hards, and went the gap to complete ninth. He was promoted to P8 with Russell’s disqualification.
Pirelli’s curveball: What are the tire choices for the groups?
Final yr, Pirelli designed the C2 because the arduous tire, with the C3 because the medium, and the C4 because the tender.
Now right here comes their curveball.
The C3 and the C4 are again for 2025, however Pirelli has gone one step more durable on the different finish of the vary. This yr, the arduous compound is the C1, making it the primary time because the 2022 Australian Grand Prix that Pirelli has provided non-consecutive tire choices for the groups and drivers.
In accordance with Pirelli, the rationale behind these decisions was that “this trio ought to make a two-stop technique much more aggressive.”
Will that be the case on Sunday?
What are the tire methods for the Belgian Grand Prix?
In accordance with Pirelli, the two-stop technique ought to nonetheless be the popular strategy.
However solely barely.
“If it’s a dry race with observe temperatures considerably decrease than at present’s or yesterday’s, the Smooth and Medium compounds would be the best,” stated Mario Isola, Pirelli’s Director of Motorsport, of their post-qualifying report. “As there’s not that massive a distinction between a one-stop and a two-stop, any mixture of Smooth and Medium is feasible. That doesn’t imply the choice to convey a really arduous Laborious right here was a mistake: if we had saved the identical trio as final yr, the one-stop would have been considerably faster.
“One should additionally keep in mind that overtaking at this observe will not be that simple, as might be seen in all at present’s Dash races, in F1, F2 and F3, when trains of automobiles have been fashioned regardless of or certainly due to the DRS. Because of this the beginning, and particularly the primary sector on the opening lap, ought to make the distinction and slipstreaming may play an vital position.”
In accordance with Pirelli’s simulations, a two-stop strategy with a stint on the tender tires, coupled with two stints on the mediums, is the quickest solution to the checkered flag.
However solely barely. A one-stop may nonetheless be on supply for drivers, whether or not beginning on the tender tires and working till between Lap 16 and Lap 22, after which switching to mediums, or beginning on the mediums, working till between Lap 17 and 23, after which switching to hards:
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“In our calculations, the two-stop soft-medium-medium is faster than the one-stop soft-medium … however by only a few seconds,” added Isola. “Tomorrow [Sunday] with decrease temperatures and, due to these temperatures, degradation that may be extra simply managed, soft-medium might be an possibility. It’s going to want fairly a excessive degree of administration … however it’s doable.”
As you possibly can see right here on this graphic from F1, the automobiles which have contemporary tender tires are typically within the backside half of the sphere, beginning with the Haas pairing of Esteban Ocon and Oliver Bearman in P11 and P12, respectively:
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These groups with contemporary tender tires may begin out on these, and even save them ought to the skies open up.
As a result of now we have another potential curveball to debate.
What concerning the climate for the Belgian Grand Prix?
Sure, right here is the ultimate curveball.
It may be a moist Belgian Grand Prix.
In accordance with the most recent forecasts, Sunday will begin out wet, with a 92% probability of rain at 9:00 a.m. native time. That slowly decreases all through the day however stays at 72% within the 3:00 p.m. hour native time, when the race begins.
That would imply much more unknowns because the Belgian Grand Prix begins.
“As for technique, the very first thing to think about is that the forecast is for a excessive probability of rain. Due to this fact the hypothetical situations are many, in each sense of the phrase,” added Isola in Pirelli’s Saturday report.
“If the race begins within the dry, however with the specter of rain, one can simply think about the Medium could be the favorite compound in order to have larger flexibility in managing the second to modify to rain tires or to increase the primary stint as a lot as doable.”