OPINION — The conflict in Ukraine has advanced into a posh geopolitical battle, formed not solely by army technique however by international financial dependencies. Whereas Western nations proceed to supply monetary and army assist, a essential vulnerability has emerged: Ukraine’s heavy reliance on Chinese language drone parts. The Ukrainian drone producers with whom I’ve spoken admit that their drones are constructed from as a lot as 65% Chinese language parts. This dependence, whereas tactically essential, has a paradoxical consequence: Western assist inadvertently strengthens the very provide chains that additionally profit Russia, thereby prolonging the battle.
In the end, Ukraine will solely win this conflict by forcing Russia to spend sufficient that persevering with to ship troopers and gear into Ukraine turns into financially untenable. As a result of China maintains a strategic place in international expertise manufacturing—particularly in drone elements—each Ukraine and Russia draw from the identical pool of sources, albeit by way of totally different channels. This paradox raises pressing questions concerning the effectiveness of Western assist and the long-term technique for ending the conflict.
Fairly than persevering with to fund Ukraine’s drone purchases, the West ought to prioritize dismantling Chinese language provide chain dominance. Doing so wouldn’t solely weaken Russia’s entry to essential applied sciences but in addition strengthen Western industrial capability and cut back international reliance on China. Financial technique, not simply army help, is vital to resolving the conflict in Ukraine and making ready for future international conflicts.
Ukraine’s Dependence on Chinese language Drone Parts
For the reason that onset of Russia’s full-scale invasion, drones have grow to be a cornerstone of Ukraine’s protection. Throughout a latest journey to the Ukrainian entrance traces, a Ukrainian commander defined, “The DJI Mavic is the king of battle. Nothing else is even shut.” DJI drones are manufactured in China, and by 2023, Ukraine was reportedly buying as much as 30% of the corporate’s international Mavic manufacturing.
This dependence, nonetheless, has grow to be a strategic legal responsibility. In 2024 and 2025, China imposed export restrictions on drone parts to Ukraine, together with flight controllers, motors, and navigation cameras. By way of this reliance, Ukraine is handing China management over its skill to maintain the conflict. These restrictions have severely disrupted Ukraine’s drone provide chain, resulting in shortages on the entrance traces and forcing army items to hunt options.
This dynamic reveals a troubling actuality: the identical Chinese language parts Ukraine is determined by have been present in Russian drones, together with the Iranian-designed Shahed loitering munitions used to assault Ukrainian cities.
China’s Twin Position: Limiting Ukraine, Empowering Russia
China’s function within the Ukraine battle is marked by strategic ambiguity—publicly claiming neutrality whereas quietly enabling Russia’s conflict effort. This posture has had profound penalties for each side of the battlefield. On one hand, China has imposed export restrictions on drone parts to Ukraine, severely limiting its skill to supply drones for frontline operations. Then again, China continues to provide Russia with dual-use applied sciences, akin to semiconductors, drone engines, and optical sensors, that are essential to sustaining Moscow’s drone manufacturing. And at last, shopping for Chinese language parts strengthens China’s economic system, which permits them to help disruptive regimes, particularly Russia.
Proof of China’s help for Russia is mounting. In July 2025, Ukraine imposed sanctions on 5 Chinese language firms after recovering Chinese language-made elements from downed Russian Shahed drones which had been utilized in assaults on Kyiv. These corporations—starting from precision munitions producers to logistics suppliers—had been supplying parts that bypass Western sanctions. This selective restriction technique advantages Russia disproportionately.
Regardless of efforts to scale home manufacturing, Ukraine’s drone business stays constrained by restricted entry to essential parts and manufacturing capability, making purchases from China a necessity. The result’s a battlefield dynamic through which Ukraine’s technological edge is more and more undermined by its dependence on a provide chain managed by a rustic that’s, at greatest, strategically ambiguous, and at worst, actively enabling Russia’s conflict effort.
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Western Funding and Its Unintended Penalties
Whereas Western nations have poured billions into Ukraine’s drone business with the intent of giving them a battlefield benefit, a good portion of Ukraine’s drone manufacturing nonetheless is determined by Chinese language parts. This creates a troubling paradox: Western funding supposed to assist Ukraine could also be not directly sustaining Chinese language provide chains that profit Russia. The issue isn’t just tactical—it’s structural. Western assist has centered on scaling manufacturing quite than rebuilding provide chains.
Many Ukrainian drone factories that declare home manufacturing are literally solely assembling imported Chinese language parts. And it’s not their fault; there are not any viable options to the Chinese language parts wanted to fabricate superior drones. This dependency undermines the strategic worth of Western funding and dangers prolonging the conflict by conserving each side tethered to the identical international provide community.
Strategic Shift: Substitute Chinese language Provide Chains
To actually help Ukraine—and to arrange for future geopolitical challenges—Western nations should rethink their strategy. Funding must be redirected from drone purchases to constructing resilient, non-Chinese language provide chains. This implies investing in home and allied manufacturing of essential parts, supporting Ukrainian innovation by way of switch of parts, and creating joint manufacturing hubs in Europe and North America which promote to Ukraine at backed costs. Doing so may have the secondary profit of creating manufacturing capability and experience in Europe and North America, whereas concurrently lowering money circulation to China. Solely by severing the hyperlink to Chinese language provide chains can the West be certain that its assist is just not inadvertently resourcing its adversaries.
Momentum is constructing for this variation. In 2025, the U.S. authorities launched a collection of legislative reforms, together with the “Unleashing American Drone Dominance” Govt Order, which mandates prioritization of U.S.-made drones for federal businesses. This was adopted by the DoD Procurement Directive and the FY2025 Nationwide Protection Authorization Act, which expanded budgets and imposed new boundaries on international drones. These strikes have catalyzed a surge in funding, and there appears to be larger emphasis on the horizon.
Europe can also be pivoting. The Atlantic Council’s technique temporary outlines a complete “protect-promote-align” framework to safe provide chains. This consists of banning Chinese language drones in delicate sectors, selling home manufacturing, and aligning insurance policies throughout NATO, the EU, and the G7. The aim is obvious: construct a resilient, safe, and democratic drone ecosystem that may face up to geopolitical shocks and help allied protection wants.
Changing Chinese language provide chains is not going to solely shorten the conflict in Ukraine by chopping off Russia’s entry to essential applied sciences—it’s going to additionally strengthen Western readiness for future conflicts. It is going to create jobs, foster innovation, and restore strategic autonomy.
The conflict in Ukraine is just not solely a take a look at of army resilience however a mirrored image of world financial interdependence. Ukraine’s reliance on Chinese language drone parts has created a strategic paradox—one through which Western assist could also be inadvertently sustaining the very provide chains that empower Russia. China’s twin function, limiting Ukraine whereas enabling Russia, underscores the urgency of rethinking how help is structured. Continued funding for drone purchases, with out addressing the underlying provide chain vulnerabilities, dangers prolonging the battle and weakening the West’s strategic place.
To actually assist Ukraine win, the West should shift its focus from short-term battlefield options to long-term financial technique. Changing Chinese language provide chains isn’t just about drones—it’s about restoring industrial sovereignty, lowering dependence on authoritarian regimes, and making ready for future conflicts. By investing in home and allied manufacturing, the West can construct a resilient protection ecosystem that serves each fast and future safety wants. Victory in Ukraine is not going to come solely by way of firepower—it’s going to come by way of financial energy, strategic foresight, and the braveness to reshape the techniques that underpin trendy warfare. The time to behave is now.
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