CIMB Analysis just lately revised upwards its 2025 complete business quantity (TIV) forecast from 755,000 to 760,000 models; now so has Maybank Funding Financial institution however by an even bigger quantum – from 750,000 to 790,000 models, Bernama stories.
This upwards revision is on the again of sustained mass-market progress, offset by weak point within the premium/luxurious section, with a constructive catalyst from the most recent OMV/402 postponement to January 2026, the funding financial institution stated in a analysis notice yesterday.
It added that mass-market gross sales, significantly from Perodua and a few Proton fashions, are anticipated to learn from larger shopper spending, pushed by the February minimal wage enhance and the December 2024 civil servant wage hike.
“The mass-premium market section (RM100,000-RM200,000 autos) will face margin strain from intensified competitors however ought to nonetheless contribute to total TIV progress.
“In the meantime, the premium/luxurious section is prone to wrestle resulting from competitors from inexpensive and enticing new fashions, together with electrical autos (EVs), in addition to potential petrol subsidy cuts and the high-value items tax, which may offset progress in different segments,” it stated.
Maybank IB additionally projected that EV and hybrid adoption will respectively attain 3% and 5% in 2025 (versus 2024’s 2% and 4%), pushed by new mannequin launches and aggressive pricing, particularly from manufacturers dashing to promote fully-imported (CBU) EVs earlier than the tax-free interval expires year-end.
On EV chargers, it famous that solely 3,354 have been put in in Malaysia as of October 2024. To realize the federal government’s 10,000-unit goal this yr, there must be 554 new chargers a month on common (2024’s month-to-month common was 111).
“If (the OMV/402 revision is) applied, locally-assembled (CKD) automobile costs may rise by 10-30%. We imagine this might damage native TIV gross sales, particularly if it coincides with different headwinds like petrol subsidy rationalisation and the high-value items tax, doubtlessly dampening shopper sentiment and market demand,” Maybank IB stated.
In ascending order, the 2025 TIV forecasts are actually RHB Funding Financial institution 730,000, CIMB Analysis 760,000, the Malaysian Automotive Affiliation 780,000, Maybank Funding Financial institution Analysis 790,000 and Kenanga Funding Financial institution 805,000.
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