US Open tennis rankings for top-25 males’s gamers, primarily based on championship probabilities

In skilled tennis, the little quantity subsequent to your identify is the whole lot. It’s your seed, your standing, your proof to be taken severely. “Oh my, did you see that the man with the 22 subsequent to his identify beat the man with the three subsequent to his identify?! Wow, what an upset!” And usually, seeding — derived from the ATP rankings coming in together with a smattering of subjectivity — is a good technique to gauge who can win and who can’t. However not all the time.

For the upcoming US Open, the final main event of the 12 months, males’s tennis has about 17 folks whose names you must most likely know, however for the sake of spherical numbers (and since I feel we form of hit a wall on the Alexander Bublik/Alexei Popyrin flip), I’m going to rank the ATP High 25* and inform you who I feel has an opportunity of successful the US Open.

*Disclaimer: to my information, the one High 25 participant who has dropped out attributable to harm up to now is Gregor Dimitrov. Which will change within the month earlier than the event, so I’ll get to my Denis Shapovalov ideas if the necessity arises.

Tier 6: Different names you must most likely know, introduced so as of ATP rank

BONUS: 49. Joao Fonseca

Our harm substitute for Dimitrov on this listing, Fonseca made back-to-back third rounds at majors and continues to be 18 years previous, so ask anybody round males’s tennis who the following factor is perhaps… they’ll level to him.

25. Alexander Bublik

Fiery participant who beat Jack Draper on the French Open however misplaced within the first spherical at Wimbledon.

24. Francisco Cerundolo

A participant on the up-and-up since 2023, Cerundolo is the paragon of males’s tennis’ crowded center class.

23. Ugo Humbert

Humbert has seemingly been round endlessly and all the time is a risk to win a match or two, however I’m unsure how far more than that he’s able to.

22. Tomas Machac

Our second Czech participant in 4 spots, Machac is a 2024 Olympic gold medalist in combined doubles.

21. Arthur Fils

Ranked 21, age 21, and the highest participant from France, Fils is a very enjoyable watch with some huge wins on laborious courts — he toppled Zverev this 12 months in Miami.

20. Grigor Dimitrov (out with pectoral harm)

19. Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

At the moment the very best ranked he’s ever been, he’s the very best non-Alcaraz Spaniard on tour and simply made the Last of the Citi Open.

18. Jakub Mensik

He’s 19, 6’5” and grabbed a big-time win over Djokovic on the 2025 Miami Open, an ATP Masters 1000-level occasion.

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Tier 5: The “Nothing to Lose” Dudes

17. Flavio Cobolli

ATP Rank: 17

He’s six years youthful than Khachanov and is at the moment launching an exploratory committee with being an elite participant. We’re going to have to attend to see if that committee comes again with a greater verdict than “take a set off Djokovic within the Wimbledon quarterfinals,” however I’m down for something.

16. Karen Khachanov

ATP Rank: 16

Khachanov is the ATP’s current house-money participant. No person ever expects him to win something, however he sometimes places collectively a nasty run and reminds all people that they aren’t protected with their rankings. He’s a enjoyable participant, however I don’t see him truly successful something anytime quickly.

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Tier 4: I’m truthfully simply confused

15. Casper Ruud

ATP Rank: 13

Barely higher, Ruud has received two matches at majors this 12 months however pulled out of Wimbledon attributable to harm. There was a very good 20 minutes when it appeared like Ruud could possibly be the following factor, however now I don’t know what to suppose; I haven’t had quite a lot of purpose to consider in the way forward for Norwegian tennis not too long ago.

14. Daniil Medvedev

ATP Rank: 14

What a fall off for Medvedev, who’s had the 12 months from hell in majors — he’s one one match in three Grand Slams, and that’s simply insane for the previous World #1. That is the man that beat Djokovic within the 2021 US Open Last when he was going for the calendar Grand Slam, and he’s simply been unable to hack it this 12 months. I don’t know what occurred, however there’s no means it may possibly keep this dangerous.

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Tier 3: The put up or shut up crew

13. Tommy Paul

ATP Rank: 15

Paul has been taking part in his finest tennis within the final two years, however I nonetheless lack proof that his finest tennis is sufficient to even attain a serious remaining, not to mention win one. In the event you’re on the lookout for an American hopeful, you have got three higher choices.

12. Holger Rune

ATP Rank: 9

Rune is a participant I don’t actually perceive. He has the instruments of an elite participant of his era, however has been woefully unsuccessful in 5 units. If something, he’s a bit like a less-successful Jack Draper. Or perhaps that’s simply due to their backwards hats.

11. Andrey Rublev

ATP Rank: 11

Oh, you guys thought De Minaur was a social experiment in quartefinal failure? Nicely, let me introduce Rublev, who’s 0-10 all time in main quarterfinals. That’s simply merciless and weird, so Rublev has some demons to take care of earlier than he might be taken severely as a contender.

10. Frances Tiafoe

ATP Rank: 12

Tiafoe was my foremost American hope for some time after he pushed Carlos Alcaraz to 5 units within the 2022 US Open semifinal, however he hasn’t been almost as constant as Fritz or Shelton currently. He performs with tons of fireside and probably digs deeper than anybody else on tour when his again is towards the wall, however his sport hasn’t developed with the remainder of males’s tennis. He nonetheless depends on a topspin-heavy forehand that trades uncooked pace for spin charge, and doesn’t have the rate to overpower lesser opponents like others round his degree.

9. Alex De Minaur

ATP Rank: 8

De Minaur’s profession is sort of a social experiment of what number of quarterfinals you may make with out ever attending to a semifinal. It’s truthfully unhappy, and he’s nursing an 0-5 document within the final eight regardless of taking part in glorious tennis for years now. One other participant with a constant sport that simply hasn’t confirmed something on the highest degree, De Minaur most likely wants a good draw to interrupt the drought. That or an exorcism.

8. Lorenzo Mussetti

ATP Rank: 10

The hallmark of this group are gamers I feel might be higher than they’re… however they should show it to me. Mussetti is a participant I legit like, with a type of “I’m unsure it will work however I’m going to attempt it anyway” shot diets that make Sinner and Alcaraz so particular. Mussetti has a sport that appears virtually comically like Roger Federer, with the scarf and one-handed backhand besides. However he has actual energy, and I consider him him as a possible riser on tour.

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Tier 2: Speak your self into it

7. Taylor Fritz

ATP Rank: 4

I’m not Fritz’s greatest fan. I’ve lengthy been skeptical of his skill to beat prime gamers in five-set matches, typically simply farming the gamers he’s presupposed to beat and folding as soon as his opponent has a greater hand. However beating everybody you’re presupposed to beat is a little bit of an underrated ability, which allowed Fritz to get to the US Open Last final 12 months on the again of an insanely mild draw. Positive, he bought railroaded by Sinner within the remaining, however all he wanted was yet another fortunate break and he may have been a serious champion. It’s a very shaky concept, however generally it’s higher to be fortunate than good. Truly, more often than not.

6. Jack Draper

ATP Rank: 5

Draper had a very disappointing Wimbledon, ceding the British highlight to Cameron Norrie after coming in because the overwhelming hometown favourite. Draper does, nevertheless, have absurd burst on his serve and performs a constant, all-court fashion that’s conducive to success in five-set matches. And he’s solely 23, so I wouldn’t rule him out.

5. Ben Shelton

ATP Rank: 7

I’m going out on a limb right here, however I feel Shelton will quickly be a daily member of the ATP High 5. He’s higher than each Jack Draper and Taylor Fritz mechanically, and performs a mode that may and can propel him previous elite challengers. He’s had a very nice 12 months, and has a number of time to develop into his remaining type. The one query is: will or not it’s ok?

4. Alexander Zverev

ATP Rank: 3

Zverev has had an up-and-down 12 months, and actually an up-and-down profession so far as Grand Slams go. He’s mainly glorified cannon fodder for whoever occurs to be on the prime degree of males’s tennis, be it Djokovic and Nadal or Sinner and Alcaraz — all the time doing nicely on tour however unable to interrupt his private glass ceiling. He’s gotten unfortunate in spots, and has a very trendy sport with fairly particular mobility for his measurement. He may undoubtedly win a serious if he by some means dodges the highest two on his path to the ultimate, however that’s not a very good wager. It’s more likely Zverev himself will get upset.

3. Novak Djokovic

ATP Rank: 6

That is the place the rankings diverge from methodology, as Djokovic is ranked under three much-younger gamers however nonetheless, in my opinion, has a greater probability in five-set matches. Djokovic bought annihilated by Sinner within the Wimbledon Semifinal, and it appears to be like increasingly more just like the GOAT doesn’t have a prayer towards males’s tennis’ new royalty. However I’d nonetheless most likely choose him towards any of the opposite 62 gamers within the event, a testomony to how a lot his sport has endured his older age. Nonetheless, I don’t understand how for much longer I can be giving the Serbian the good thing about the doubt, so he higher savor it.

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Tier 1: These Two

2. Carlos Alcaraz

ATP Rank: 2

I imply, do I’ve to elucidate this tier to anybody anymore? It appears to be like like these would be the High 2 seeds at each Slam and meet within the remaining each time… presumably till the warmth dying of the universe. Sinner is so ridiculously good on laborious courtroom, so Alcaraz is second. However like… would I even be one p.c shocked if he received the factor? By no means.

1. Jannik Sinner

ATP Rank: 1

I’ve no rational purpose to foretell Carlos Alcaraz will beat Sinner on laborious courtroom. The Italian is popping into some form of Rafael-Nadal-on-clay-except-its-on-hard-court degree favourite, having taken the final three Grand Slams on the floor. And I had no rational purpose to foretell he would beat Alcaraz on grass at Wimbledon both, after which Sinner did it anyway. And he’s completely performed himself into form after his suspension, so by some mixture of intestine really feel and irrefutable proof, Sinner is the clear favourite. Had he not choked away the French Open remaining after having three match factors, he can be going for the Calendar Grand Slam proper now — or successful all 4 majors in a single 12 months. That hasn’t been accomplished since Rod Laver in 1969.